Russia

Richard Holbrooke, the Obama administration's special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, is headed to Russia soon, just as a U.S. government team is also on its way there to deal with problems surrounding a new U.S.-Russian agreement to transit lethal materials through Russian space to supply U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

The controversial Holbrooke has had an ever-growing portfolio since taking on the Afghanistan/Pakistan mission, not to mention a staff that's grown from an initial 15 to more than 30 people. There are conflicting accounts of whether Holbrooke would deal with the Russians on the problems implementing the transit agreement. An interagency technical team is also on the way to Moscow to deal with the same issue, two administration officials confirmed.

State Department spokesman Ian Kelly told The Cable that Holbrooke is going to Russia "for meetings with his special representative counterpart and to discuss U.S.-Russia cooperation regarding Afghanistan," but said he couldn't be more specific.

"He doesn't do Russia," said one administration official who was surprised to hear Holbrooke was on the way there. Several sources said that Holbrooke's famously aggressive style and lack of history in dealing with the complicated and difficult Russians made him a particularly surprising choice to send there. "He's probably the worst personality that could be picked for something like this," said another experienced Russia hand.

The State Department could not confirm the specific date, but the trip is expected soon; a senior official described Holbrooke's mission in veiled terms only as discussing "political issues at a high level."

Speculating on Holbrooke's international standing throughout the region is somewhat of a parlor game for the diplomatic community. Despite his AfPak job, Holbrooke has not been to Afghanistan since before the disputed presidential elections in August; his lack of appearances there recently prompted many to think he was not welcome, in light of a reported feud with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The Indians have also made it clear they are not interested in being included in Holbrooke's sphere of policy influence. Holbrooke maintains he has just been hard at work in Washington dealing with the administration's Afghanistan strategy review.

Nevertheless, there are increasing signs Holbrooke's reach is widening. A team from Holbrooke's office is currently in Beijing for discussions with Chinese officials on both Pakistan and Afghanistan, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Tuesday.

Meanwhile, multiple sources tell The Cable that there are problems with the U.S.-Russian agreement to allow lethal military materials pass through Russian space on the way to Afghanistan. The deal, agreed to in July during Obama's trip there, is the one tangible example of progress in the administration's effort to "reset' U.S.-Russian relations.

"We're trying to build a more constructive relationship with Russia," said Kelly. "Two of the best examples of our cooperation are the lethal transit agreement and cooperative counternarcotics training."

But the Russians are now attempting to place new conditions on the supply routes, the sources said. For example, Russia is demanding to know exactly what items are in each shipment before allowing them to go through, a condition the U.S. military is not about to meet.

The U.S. government is receiving different messages from different segments of the Russian government, the sources said, complicating the matters. Another part of the Russian government demanded a tariff be paid on U.S. shipments entering Russia on their way to Afghanistan, a complete surprise to the U.S. side.

Update:  Holbrooke is also headed back to Afghanistan, his first trip there since August, at the end of his whirlwind trip around Europe, his spokesman said.

Holbrooke is currently en route to Berlin, after which he will travel to Paris, then Munich, then Moscow, before heading to Kabul. The trip is part of his regular diplomacy to consult with allies and partners on the Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy review currently ongoing, the spokesman said.

Holbrooke’s trip to Russia is not primarily to deal with the lethal transit agreement between the U.S. and Russia, the spokesman explained. An interagency task force is in Moscow to iron out implementation issues with that agreement, but that is a coincidence, the spokesman said.

Holbrooke has a long history of dealing with the Russians, including a personal relationship with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the spokesman explained.

The spokesman could not give details about who exactly Holbrooke would meet with either in Moscow or Kabul.

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Barack Obama did in fact deserve the Nobel Peace Prize, former prize winner and Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev said in an exclusive interview with Radio Free Europe.

"I won it unexpectedly and he won it unexpectedly," Gorby told the U.S. government-funded outlet based in Prague. "America means a lot [to the world] and will continue to do so for a long time ... That's why [we have to] support a president of such stature, who gave his own country and the world such a strong push forward. And it's already showing real effects. That's honorable."

The former leader also talks about the state of Russian democracy, the Russian opposition, and corruption in the Russian government. RFE characterizes Gorbachev's role and reputiation:

Hugely popular abroad, Gorbachev has long been widely disliked at home for bringing about the end of communism. He remained active in politics, co-founding the Social Democratic Party. But when he ran for president in 1996, he won less than 1 percent of the vote.

Since Putin's rise to power in 2000, Gorbachev has often been among the first to criticize new authoritarian measures in Russia, especially restrictions against the free press, independent politicians, and nongovernmental organizations. But he's been a consistently ardent supporter of the man many believe responsible for the country's direction: Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Check out the video here:

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The Obama administration's new missile-defense scheme was not designed to appease Russia, but if the Russians like it, that would be a great side benefit, the State Department's top arms-control official said Wednesday.

Ellen O. Tauscher, under secretary of state for arms control and international security, defended plans to overhaul Bush administration design for missile defense in Eastern Europe in a speech today at the Atlantic Council, a transatlantic-themed Washington think tank.

"There was no attempt to curry favor with the Russian government or to secure some kind of tradeoff in our negotiations for a START follow-on treaty," said Tauscher, responding to mostly conservative critics who have tried to frame the Obama missile-defense plans as a unilateral concession to the Russians.

"Now, if, as a consequence of the change in the direction of our European-based BMD plans, Moscow now understands that our future BMD deployments will not pose a threat to Russia's strategic deterrent, and thus is now open to cooperation, including in BMD, then that is an added benefit to our initiative and we should embrace it," she added, referring to ballistic missile defense.

Tauscher said that the Obama administration is seriously interested in missile defense cooperation with Russia, including taking up the Russian offer to share data from the Russian-leased, Azerbaijani-owned early warning radar at Qabala, and the early-warning radar at Armavir in southern Russia.

Tauscher and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov will cochair the U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission's working group on Arms Control and International Security, one of the committees announced after the July summit meant to shore up relations on a host of issues, in Moscow next week.

Cooperation with Poland and the Czech Republic, which were supposed to have housed the Bush administration's missile-defense infrastructure, will continue in a new form, Tauscher said, but she acknowledged the rushed announcement of the decision may have exacerbated those countries' angst over the changes.

"Now I will be the first to admit, since I had to jump on a plane at the last minute to fly to Warsaw and Prague, that the rollout could have been handled better," she said.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is also scheduled to travel to Moscow this month and Vice President Joseph Biden will go to Warsaw and Prague, his office has announced.

As the Obama administration negotiates with Russia over a new nuclear arms reduction treaty, Senate Republicans are already planning their strategy to demand maximum concessions in exchange for their potential support.

The Senate Republican Policy Committee, led by South Dakota's John Thune, shown at left, is circulating a memo (pdf) outlining the GOP strategy to deal with the "follow on" to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which expires December 5. According to the memo, obtained by The Cable, the Republicans have a long list of demands, some of which are unlikely to be met when the administration rolls out the new agreement.

"A treaty meeting the goals articulated in this paper is more likely to gain the two-thirds majority necessary for Senate consent," the memo explains.

The differences between administration plans and GOP demands are likely to complicate the push for ratification in the Senate, which is expected early next year.

The core strategy for the Senate Republicans will be to try to frame the nuclear reductions as a unilateral concession that President Obama is making to the Russians.

"The United States should not pay for what is free," the memo states. "Russia's nuclear numbers will decline dramatically in the coming years with or without an arms control treaty. The United States should not make important concessions in return for something that will happen in any event."

Republicans will also call on Obama to justify the arms reductions in the context of American security interests, not simply U.S.-Russia relations.

"Russia needs this agreement far more than the U.S. does. It is desperately trying to lock the U.S. into lower nuclear levels, not the other way around."

GOP senators such as minority whip Jon Kyl, R-AZ, have been accusing Obama of rushing to get an agreement, a theme the strategy memo says will continue as Republicans argue that an extension of the old terms is preferable to a bad treaty.

Specifically, the memo sets three basic conditions for Republican support.

First, the new treaty should not constrain U.S. missile defenses, the GOP senators argue, nor should it impinge upon the military's plans to develop what's called "global strike" capabilities -- the ability to attack any target in the world at any time.

In a previous interview with The Cable, a senior administration official said there would be no specific treaty language on missile defense, but that some verification of conventional systems such as those used in global strike might be covered in the final version.

Secondly, Republicans are demanding the administration submit a modernization plan for the nation's nuclear stockpile at the same time as the treaty. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher has said that such a plan will be submitted in next year's budget but will not include the Bush administration's proposal for building a new type of nuclear weapon, called the Reliable Replacement Warhead.

The third condition, the one the administration won't be able to deliver to Republicans, is their call for Russian tactical nuclear weapons to be covered in the new treaty. The senior official had said that would not be part of these negotiations, but could be covered in the next treaty, what insiders are calling "the follow on to the follow on."

The administration's negotiating team, led by Rose Gottemoeller, the assistant secretary of state for verification, compliance, and implementation, has been traveling back and forth to Geneva to negotiate terms with the Russians.

And Tauscher is testifying today to the House Armed Services Committee on the administration's recent decision to alter missile-defense plans in Europe, a decision she maintains was also not a concession to Russia.

"Nothing that we did had anything to do with Russian saber-rattling or their consternation about the ground-based interceptors or the Czech radar. The decision was not part of any trade-off or quid pro quo," Tauscher said, adding, "If, as a consequence of President Obama's decision, relations with Russia improve, then we should embrace that benefit."

UPDATE: The Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation's Kingston Reif writes in to point out that while the GOP strategy memo quotes the Perry-Schlesinger Commission more than two dozen times, it never mentions that the group of bipartisan elders actually endorses the START follow-on process. Here's a quote from the report:

"The moment appears ripe for a renewal of arms control with Russia, and this bodes well for a continued reduction in the nuclear arsenal. The United States and Russia should pursue a step-by-step approach and take a modest first step to ensure that there is a successor to START I when it expires at the end of 2009."

FILE; Mark Wilson/Getty Images

In which we scour the transcript of the State Department's daily presser so you don't have to. Here are the highlights of today's briefing by spokesman Ian Kelly:

• Regarding the news about the secret Iranian nuclear facility in Qom, Kelly said that despite the fact that the American intelligence committee has been watching it for years, "in and of itself the information that we announced today does not contradict the assessment that we made in the [National Intelligence Estimate] in 2007" which said that Iran was no longer working to make nuclear weapons. Really?
• Amid all the news about Iran's nuclear ambitions, let's not forget their detention of American and Canadian citizens without due process, Kelly said. "Individuals in detention include Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari, Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, retired Iranian-American businessman Reza Taghavi, and American hikers Joshua Fattal, Shane Bauer, and Sarah Shourd. American Robert Levinson has also been missing in Iran since March of 2007."
• No release of the pending Burma policy review today, Kelly said. Should be "early next week," maybe even Monday. Has to be before Wednesday, when assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell climbs the Hill to testify before Senator Jim Webb's subcommittee on the new strategy of engaging the junta.
• In other Asia news, President Obama has announced his intention to nominate for House Foreign Affairs Committee staffer Robert King as the new Special Envoy on North Korean Human Rights. No word on whether or not King will actually get to be in any of the meetings with the North Koreans. "I think first we have to make the decision we're going to actually have the bilateral talks, and then we'll see who actually participates in it," Kelly said.
• No announcement yet on whether Amb. Stephen Bosworth will be sent to meet with the North Koreans, but his right-hand man Sung Kim had meetings with South Korean negotiator Wi Sung-lac, which should mean that all the necessary "consultations" are done.
• And finally, responding to e-mails from readers of The Cable about yesterday's Briefing Skipper, I hereby offer you the link to the (maybe) fake sex tape that is at the center of the scandal involving Kyle Hatcher, an aide to U.S. Ambassador John Beyrle in Russia and the Russian intelligence community/press. Warning: NSFW!

In which we scour the transcript of the State Department's daily presser so you don't have to. Here are the highlights of today's briefing by spokesman Ian Kelly:

• The Royal New Zealand Air Force, came to the aid of an ill American in Antarctica, sending a C-130 Hercules aircraft from Christchurch to make the rescue at the McMurdo research station there. Thanks!
• The State Department "worked closely with the producers" of the ABC news report about the sex tape involving Kyle Hatcher, an aide to U.S. Ambassador John Beyrle in Russia. "We believe, as Amb. Beyrle said in the interview, that he has been the subject of a smear campaign using -- using the Russian press. And of course, this kind of campaign is disgusting and deplorable," said Kelly, adding "it's an example of the continuation of a Cold War mentality." Doesn't look that cold in the video to me! (rim shot)
• Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad apparently didn't tell the State Department directly what he said publicly yesterday about allowing his nuclear scientists to meet with inspectors. "We do want to sit down with them and have a serious exchange and find out if, indeed, they -- they're ready to open up their nuclear program," said Kelly. Do I detect a note of skepticism?
• The Burma policy review could be out as early as tomorrow, Kelly said, previewing the administration's new policy of "pressure and engagement." Kelly explained, "we believe that sanctions have a place in our policy, but sanctions or isolation has not, in and of themselves, produced the kind of results that we've been looking for. Senator Jim Webb, get ready to be happy.
• No real movement to report on the stalemate at the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa, where ousted president Manuel Zelaya is hiding out. "The situation, I hate to use a cliché, is calm but tense," Kelly said. Since when does Ian hate to use clichés!

In which we scour the transcript of the State Department's daily presser so you don't have to. Here are the highlights of today's briefing by spokesman Ian Kelly:

• Deputy Secretary of State James B. Steinberg will lead an interagency delegation to Vietnam, Malaysia, China, Republic of Korea and Japan, from September 25th to October 1st. Lucky guy.
• The United States will not heed Russian demands that poppy fields all over Afghanistan be eradicated from the skies. Eradication hasn't worked to cut off funds to the Taliban, Kelly said, in fact it drives the affected farmers into the hands of the insurgency. Alternative crop development is the way to go, he added. Viktor Ivanov, Russia's head anti-drug guy, might need a downer after he hears that message tomorrow from White House Drug Czar Gil Kerlikowske and State's assistant secretary for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs David Johnson.
• Water and power are back on at the Brazilian Embassy in Honduras, where ousted President Manuel Zelaya has been holed up while protesters bang on the gates. The United States played a role in getting the lights turned back on and getting embassy staff out through the crowds and back to their homes. The "de facto" regime invited an OAS delegation and the United States is working on a request by the Brazilians to hold a U.N. Security Council meeting on the issue, Kelly said. No comment on the supportive words for Zelaya from Hugo Chavez.
• No comment on claims by Egyptian culture minister Faruq Hosni that the United States moved to prevent his election as head of UNESCO. I wonder if it had something to do with his assistance to the terrorists who seized the Achille Lauro cruise ship.
• Following the Obama-Netanyahu-Abbas trilateral meeting, the United States is not backing off its call for a settlement freeze by the Israelis, Kelly said. "We still continue to believe that the best way for us to create the kind of context for successful negotiations is for all sides to live up to the commitments that they made. And you know what they are. For the Israelis, it's an end to settlement activity. For the Palestinians, it's raising trust in their ability to provide for security in the region. And for Arab states, it's taking steps to normalize. But our focus has always been relaunching the negotiations. So there's been no change in our policy."

Yesterday, The Cable brought you news about the Obama administration's new nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia. Today, we share with you a previously unreported letter (pdf) from senior House GOP lawmakers telling the president that they don't like where they see the negotiations headed.

Signed by the House Armed Services Committee's ranking Republican, Howard P. "Buck" McKeon (R-CA) and House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), the letter's basic point is their contention that administration officials are rushing to complete a follow on to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) before the Dec. 5 deadline, which will cause them to make too many concessions to the Russians and get ahead of their own Nuclear Posture Review (NPR).

The GOP leaders also refer to HASC testimony (pdf) by Philip Gordon, the assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasian affairs, to criticize the possibility that the Obama team might compromise too much and end up near the lower end of ranges agreed to between Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in their July 8 Joint Understanding, namely 500 delivery vehicles and 1,500 deployed warheads.

"Congress has yet to learn what the administration's deterrence objectives and policies are, much less the appropriate nuclear force structure requirements that would be derived from them," the letter states.

The letter also warns that Congress (read: Republicans) would not look favorably on any restrictions in the new treaty that would limit U.S. missile defenses or conventional strike systems.

Ultimately, it will be up to the Senate to ratify any treaty, and that debate is not expected until early next year. But the House leaders will have a role in implementation, so their views also must be dealt with by Obama's staff.

A senior administration official, speaking to The Cable on background but not responding to the GOP letter, said that the administration made it an early task of the NPR to produce the analysis that would determine the requirements needed to negotiate with the Russians.

U.S. missile defenses will not be mentioned, but some U.S. conventional systems could be included in the final agreement.

"I can imagine that there may be some particular verification and transparency measures associated with non-nuclear systems," the official said.

Ellen O. Tauscher, the under secretary of state for arms control and international security, told The Cable that Republicans have nothing to fear from reductions and that the goodwill of the agreement would produce positive effects worldwide.

"We still have by orders of magnitude more weapons than anybody on the planet," said Tauscher, "The United States of America has most eloquently led by example [rather] than by stamping our feet or by pressuring anybody. Leading by example is the best way of being persuasive."