The Cable

Of Course the U.S. Knew About Airstrikes on Libya

Two airstrikes in the past week on Islamist militias fighting for control of Tripoli, Libya, are raising questions about who was behind the attacks and whether the United States knew about or condoned them. On Saturday, Aug. 23, Agence France-Presse reported that Islamist militants in Libya pointed the finger at Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Egyptian military quickly denied any involvement. On Monday, the New York Times reported that American officials confirmed that the Egyptians and Emiratis had launched the strikes, but said they'd caught the United States by surprise.

That claim seemed incredible, though, in light of the presence in the region of the U.S. military, which would have certainly detected a series of airstrikes. "With as many Aegis-class ships as the U.S. Navy has in the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean, there is no possible way the UAE could pull this off without the U.S. knowing it," said Christopher Harmer, a former Navy officer and an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War. Harmer said that he had no information about U.S. involvement, "but the U.S. government knows who bombed what," he said.

Egypt and the UAE are highly motivated to strike out at Islamist fighters, whose gains in Libya are only the latest reminder that a new wave of religiously aligned political groups and militias threaten secular regimes and monarchies across the region.

"Libya is a serious situation," Moroccan Foreign Minister Salaheddine Mezouar told Foreign Policy earlier this month. Morocco has organized a political dialogue among various factions in Libya in an effort to bring the country together. Mezouar has also worked closely with Egypt on the issue, specifically discussing concerns about terrorism in his July visit to Cairo.

State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki provided no additional information on the strikes during a press briefing on Monday. She reiterated the Obama administration's policy that "Libya's challenges are political, and violence will not resolve them." She added: "Our focus is on the political process there. We believe outside interference exacerbates current divisions and undermines Libya's democratic transition."

When asked whether Washington would be "disappointed" if Egypt and the UAE had conducted the airstrikes, Psaki replied, "I'm not going to go down that rabbit hole."

With the United States already engaged in a war in Afghanistan and a widening air campaign in Iraq, as well as facing the prospect of more combat in Syria against the forces of the Islamic State, Barack Obama's administration is loath to get involved militarily in yet another Middle Eastern country. But it routinely pushes other countries to do the heavy lifting themselves when it comes to improving security in fragile states.

The situation is more acute in Libya, where the administration is still dealing with the political fallout from the attack on the consulate in Benghazi in 2012. The U.S. military is reluctant to get directly involved in Libya's domestic conflict, even as intelligence officials recognize the serious threat that Islamist militants operating there pose. One of the last U.S. military operations in Libya was the June capture of Ahmed Abu Khatallah, considered a key figure in the attacks on U.S. facilities in Benghazi. But other than that, the military has opted to stay out of the country, even as diplomatic and Defense Department officials have privately encouraged other countries to do more.

Despite denials from the Egyptians and American claims that the United States knew nothing of the airstrikes, there's no doubt that the UAE's Air Force, which is newer and more advanced than Egypt's, could attack Tripoli. As of 2012, the UAE had a fleet of 60 U.S.-made F-16 Block 60 fighters, which are the most advanced of that model, according to GlobalSecurity.org, which tracks the world's militaries. The Block 60 can carry medium-range weapons, including cruise missiles that can hit targets more than 150 miles away. The UAE also has French Mirage fighters and U.S.-made Apache helicopters.

But more importantly, the UAE has a fleet of midair refueling tankers that would be crucial for launching any airstrikes over long distances. In August 2013, Airbus delivered the third and final A330 MRTT aircraft to the country, completing an order it placed five years earlier. The tanker was to be fitted with equipment for refueling both the F-16 and the Mirage, allowing either aircraft to strike targets far beyond its own limited range.

"In terms of capability, the UAE is the second-most capable air force in the Middle East, behind the Israeli Air Force," Harmer said. "It has a very young, new, and well-equipped air force … [and] they have a lot of Western pilots and maintenance personnel training their aircrews and maintaining their equipment." Although Egypt denies attacking Libya, it didn't say that Cairo prevented the UAE -- or anyone else -- from using its air bases as a staging point.

It's also possible that the UAE acted without Egypt's knowledge. Harmer said that the UAE has no stealth aircraft in its fleet, but it's conceivable that its jets could have evaded detection by Egyptian air-traffic control, which he described as poor. But they would have certainly been detected by U.S. naval vessels, Harmer added.

Aside from the hardware at the UAE's disposal, recent political maneuvering signaled some sort of military confrontation between Libya and countries in the Middle East and the Gulf. Earlier this month, representatives from the governments of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and the United States met "to express their deep concern about the political and security challenges facing Libya," according to a joint statement issued by the U.S. State Department. "We call upon all Libyans to reject terrorism and violence and to replace it with political dialogue to end the instability that is spreading across the country," the statement read.

Regional anxieties over the rise of lawlessness and extremism in Libya peaked recently with neighboring Muslim countries seeking out new ways to address the crisis. In July, Cairo hosted a meeting of the Arab League Council intended to examine the troubling developments in Libya at the request of Arab League Secretary-General Nabil El-Arabi. This month, Morocco deployed military units at several strategic locations in the country because of threats posed by jihadists in Libya, according to Radio France Internationale.

Photo via Getty Images

The Cable

With Russian Convoy in Ukraine, Defiant Putin Stays One Step Ahead

When Barack Obama's administration sanctioned a prominent Russian bank after Moscow's annexation of Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointedly opened a new account at the bank punished by the sanctions. When the United States issued travel bans against prominent Russians in Putin's inner circle because of Moscow's continued meddling in Ukraine, Putin placed a travel ban on longtime critic Sen. John McCain. When Western allies levied penalties against Russia's energy sector after Putin-backed anti-government rebels inside Ukraine shot down a Malaysia Airlines flight, killing 298, the Russian strongman responded by banning American and European agricultural imports. He then shut down the biggest symbol of American cultural might in Russia: McDonald's.

Now, with the new Western-backed Ukrainian government steadily reconquering territory that had been taken by pro-Russian separatists, Putin has ignored Western calls to stay out of the conflict and has instead sent a convoy of trucks carrying what Russian officials describe as "humanitarian" aid into Ukraine. According to a report in the New York Times, artillery units manned by Russians have been moved across the border into Ukraine and were shelling Ukrainian troops inside their own country. Russia has also been steadily massing its troops along its frontier with Ukraine, and Western officials estimate that Moscow has roughly 20,000 soldiers -- including large numbers of elite special operations commandos -- there. Late Friday, Aug. 22, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Caitlin Hayden alleged that the trucks were actually Russian military vehicles painted as civilian trucks.

Putin's new push into Ukraine immediately raised fears that Moscow would mount a broader military intervention there that it would try to justify on similar humanitarian grounds. The Ukrainian military has been pressing its offensive against the separatist-held cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, leading to large numbers of casualties on both sides. Russian state-run media have reported that nearly a hundred civilians were killed in the two cities this week alone. Putin has previously warned that he would take steps to protect Russian-speakers across Ukraine.

Putin's move brought swift condemnation from across the international community. It also brought a familiar promise from the White House: Deputy National Security advisor Ben Rhodes told reporters that if Russia doesn't reverse course, it would "face additional costs and consequences," likely in the form of -- you guessed it -- new sanctions. Rhodes didn't elaborate on what these sanctions would entail.

Putin's bold actions in Ukraine and the response from the White House are the latest in the tit for tat that has come to define the crisis. With each new sanction, Putin has been increasingly defiant; he's downright contemptuous of the West. If the past few months are any indication, a new threat from the White House will not prompt a change of heart.

And while Moscow's incursion increases the likelihood that the West will slap more sanctions on Russia, it's unclear when the United States or Europe would move or how far they would be willing to go. For instance, Washington would prefer that Europe punish existing energy deals with Russian companies. However, Europe has steadfastly refused to jeopardize its energy supplies.

"In response to the entry of the convoy, the U.S. will likely expand sanctions over the next several weeks," Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group's head of European risk analysis, said in an emailed analyst's note. But he said new restrictions would likely fall short of cutting off important sectors of the Russian economy, like energy and finance.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to meet Ukrainian leaders in Kiev on Saturday. Rahman said he expects she will signal the European Union's willingness to support stiffer penalties for Moscow's disregard of earlier warnings not to send the convoy across border into Ukraine. But a swift, unified response could be complicated by the fact that most European policymakers are still on their August holiday.

Tim Ash, head of emerging-markets research at Standard Bank Group, said the United States would be loath to act alone and therefore may have to wait.

"We may now see some harsh words, warnings, from the U.S., plus some 'filling in' of existing sanctions, aiming to tighten up on existing iterations," Ash said. "But a more decisive sanctions move may be some weeks off, perhaps through to September."

Even if new sanctions could deter Putin, it's unclear whether there is the public will in Europe -- especially in Germany -- to pass them. Public support for the penalties there has always been shaky. Now, the German government is blaming them for Germany's economic slowdown.

"The decline in gross domestic product (GDP) goes beyond the expected counter-effect to the very strong weather-related performance in the previous quarter," the German Finance Ministry said in a statement Thursday. "This is likely to have been related to the effect of sanctions and negative effects on confidence due to the Ukraine crisis."

As Foreign Policy noted last week, Germany's economic slowdown, along with that in the rest of the struggling eurozone, has little to do with Ukraine and more to do with a hangover from the European debt crisis. But the crisis provides a convenient straw man for politicians and finance ministries to blame.

Even if new sanctions aren't in the cards, condemnation of Russia's actions were swift. NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen called Russia's actions a "major escalation" of the crisis. Gen. Philip Breedlove, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, compared the Ukraine incursion to "'humanitarian' and 'peacekeeping' efforts to Georgia, Moldova, and Crimea," referring to areas Russia has either annexed or partially controls.

But the enduring mystery of what exactly is in those Russian trucks remains. Putin knows, putting him one step ahead of everyone else.

"We don't have a perfect picture of what's inside those trucks," Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said at a Friday briefing. "I don't have an imperfect picture either."

Photo by DMITRY SEREBRYAKOV/AFP/Getty Images