SINGAPORE - Political reconciliation talks with the Taliban could
begin as early as this winter, but only if the U.S. keeps up the military
pressure and convinces the Taliban they are losing the war, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Saturday
"There is a generally accepted view that nearly all
conflicts of this kind eventually come to a close with some kind of a political
settlement, but the reality is, in my view, that the prospect of a political
settlement does not become real until the Taliban and the others... begin to
conclude that they cannot win militarily," Gates said following his remarks here
at the 10th annual IISS
Shangri-La Security Dialogue.
After 15 months
of ejecting the Taliban from their home territories in the regions of Helmand
and Kandahar, the momentum is on the side of the Afghan government and the NATO
coalition, but if there's a military pullback, the prospects for negotiations
decrease, he said.
"If we can sustain those successes, if we can further expand
the security bubble, we have enough evidence that the Taliban are under
pressure and that their capabilities are being degraded, that perhaps this
winter the possibility of some kind of political talks or reconciliation might
be substantive enough to offer some hope of progress," said Gates.
The Obama administration is devising a strategy for the way
forward in Afghanistan referred to internally as "Plan 2014" that may call for
U.S. troop reductions beginning this year. But Gates, who leaves office July 1,
is warning against such a pullback.
"My own view
is that the political opportunities will flow from military pressure. And only
as long as the military pressure is kept on and there are further gains, will the
prospects for a political solution improve," he said.
Gates reiterated the U.S. position that any reconciliation
with the Taliban must include their agreement to sever ties with al Qaeda,
agree to adhere to the Afghan constitution, and lay down their arms. But he acknowledged
that the Taliban are here to stay.
"The Taliban are
probably a part of the political fabric of afg at this point and can... potentially
have a political role in the future of that country," said Gates.
Sen. John McCain
(R-AZ), the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, told The Cable in a Saturday interview that
he totally agreed with Gates's assessment and would continue to press for heavy
military pressure to continue.
"It's very simple. What motivation would the Taliban have to
talk if they think they're winning. It clearly is a situation where if they
think that they losing... then they will be willing to have serious talks," McCain
said.
But McCain admitted that whatever progress has been made
militarily in Afghanistan, problems remain with the effort in Pakistan, the
relationship with Afghan President Hamid
Karzai, and corruption in the Afghan government
"If they had good
government, they probably wouldn't have the insurgency in the first place,"
McCain said.
No matter how deaprting defense secretary Gates frames it, Vietnam-style PEACE is coming.
As far the US is concerned, the war on terror is over; feeble clarifications by the State Department, that the larger war on Al Qaeda shall continue, are inconsequential. Pakistan knows that by skilfully holding out till now, it is close to getting its proxy regime in place in Kabul. If it is able to sell the idea of an Islamabad-friendly Government as being of strategic utility to Washington, there’s no reason why the Americans should object to that. Pakistani and American interests, both short-term and medium-term, converge at this point; a broke America cannot afford to look at long-term interests, not at this moment.
And thereby hangs a tale — of Pakistani and American perfidy. The US has been, and shall remain, mindful of the “paranoia of Pakistan”; Islamabad’s sensitivities, its faux victimhood, will always take precedence over Afghanistan in Washington.
Obama administration is already asking Pakistan to provide access to Afghan Taliban leaders safely ensconced under Pakistani ISI's protection. A facade of peace deal will be reached with Afghan Taliban leaders chosen by Pakistan and as dictated by Pakistan. US will begin its drawdown and finally exit the theatre of a war it is desperate not to be seen as having lost, not so much to the Taliban and Al Qaeda as to the wily Generals of Rawalpindi who have proved to be smarter than the Americans.
That facade of peace will crumble within few years after the departure of US troops and Pakistan will bring Afghanistan under its suzerainty with reimposition of Taliban rule just as it did in 1996 as Uncle Sam helplessly looks the other way.
Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.
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