Posted By Josh Rogin
Friday, October 29, 2010 - 2:06 PM
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The Obama administration has been touting its progress in negotiations with Russia over Moscow's bid to join the World Trade Organization, but the White House has no intention of helping Russia overcome the biggest remaining obstacle: Georgia.
National Economic Council Chairman Larry Summers was in Moscow last week, where he announced that "the end is in sight" for U.S. -Russian agreement on outstanding bilateral issues, such as Russia's actions related to intellectual property rights. Summers also explained why Russia's WTO membership is in America's interest.
"The potential of this market for American business is very great... and it's important for the goal President Obama has set for doubling exports over the next five years," he said.
But after Russia has satisfied Washington's concerns on intellectual property protection, poultry issues, etc., it will have to choose whether or not to make concessions to Georgia. The two nations fought a limited war in 2008 and Russia still has troops deployed on Georgian soil to this day.
The Georgians may have been waiting for the Obama administration to approach them with an offer that would entice them to consent to Russia's WTO membership. Any one WTO country can veto Russian accession and Georgia is the leading candidate to do so. Russia may have been waiting for Washington to pressure Georgia to drop their objections. A senior administration official told The Cable that both sides can stop waiting because Washington is not going to get involved.
"This is a bilateral issue between Russia and Georgia, this is not a trilateral issue that we are supposed to solve somehow," the senior administration official said, explaining that the Obama administration has no intention of trying to exert influence on Georgia on this issue and will not offer any carrots or sticks to Tbilisi.
"People somehow think we are going to mediate this between the Russians and the Georgians. That's not our job," the official said.
The Obama administration's position is that Russia should make the first move. It is unlikely that there will be membership for Russia if basic borders and customs issues are not resolved with Georgia, the official said.
"That has to be done before Russia joins the WTO," the official said. "And as it is Russia who is seeking to join the WTO, we would see it as up to them to come up with a way to start negotiations."
So what does Georgia want from Russia? Georgian Prime Minister Nika Gilauri spelled it out in an exclusive interview with The Cable.
"Georgia's support to Russia's WTO membership is conditional. The precondition is fulfillment of obligation taken by Russia in our bilateral accession protocol in 2004 and solving issues of customs administration on the Georgian-Russian border," he said. "Unregulated illegal trade as it takes place now is counter WTO rules. Russia should become member of this rules-based organization but only if it respects trade rules."
Of course, one huge problem is how to define the "Georgian-Russian border." If you are Georgia, that includes the borders between Russia and what the Obama administration calls the "occupied" Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Some experts believe there's a compromise that could square that circle. Damon Wilson, director of the International Security Program at the Atlantic Council, said there could be some international presence on the Russia-Abkhazia and Russia-South Ossetia border, similar to the arrangement in Transnistria, a disputed territory on the border of Moldova and the Ukraine.
But he agreed with the Obama administration official that the burden to begin resolving Russia-Georgia issues that lie in the way of WTO membership is on Russia, not Georgia.
"Too many people frame this as ‘are the Georgians going to be the spoiler.' That already puts the Georgians in a box," Wilson said. "The issue is, do the Russians want in the WTO or not and if so, what are they going to do?"
The Georgians are taking a reasonable position and are not trying to make a stink out of this, recognizing that their leverage is ultimately limited, he said. But their concerns are valid and represent a real trade concern that needs to be addressed.
"If Russia is going to be a part of this, it can't enter on day one with some sort of exception. The first sign is that the Russians need to come to the table and talk to the Georgians."
Wilson's views represent those of many in the Russia watching community in Washington who wonder if the Obama administration wants Russia to join the WTO more than Russia itself wants to join. After all, in addition to the economic benefits for the United States outlined by Summers, WTO membership for Russia is one deliverable Obama would like to point to as part of his "reset" policy.
"Russians have to want this," said David Kramer, former assistant secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. "Russians have to choose whether they work with the Georgians to solve the problem or whether it's more important for them to hold Georgia up as the obstacle."
Kramer, a frequent critic of the Obama reset policy, said the administration has taken exactly the right approach on this issue by putting the onus back on Russia and Georgia to work it out without U.S. mediation.
"Sure, [the administration] is looking to get some wins on the board for Russia reset, but the Bush administration was doing the same thing. If Bush was in office today, we'd be doing the START treaty and we'd be pushing WTO," Kramer said.
Meanwhile, there's a growing murmur on Capitol Hill that the path toward U.S. support for Russian WTO membership in Congress might not be as assured as the administration might hope. Congress must repeal the 35-year-old Jackson-Vanick law, which was meant to support then Soviet emigrants. The law as currently written prevents the U.S. from granting Russian Permanent Normal Trade Relations status.
"Russia would be under no obligation to comply with its commitments to the US made in bilateral accession negotiations and the US would have no recourse to WTO dispute-resolution mechanisms. Essentially, we would get none of the benefits of having Russia inside the rules-based system if Jackson-Vanik isn't repealed," said Samuel Charap, fellow at the Center for American Progress.
Although the Soviet emigrant issue no longer exists, a Republican-controlled Congress could resist that move due to concerns about Russia on any number of issues.
"When you look at the makeup of what the Congress is likely to look like next week, that's not the most auspicious setting for the administration's argument, so there would have be a serious push by the administration and supporters on the Hill to get this done," a senior GOP Congressional aide said.
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EXPLORE:CAUCASUS, EUROPE, DEMOCRACY, DIPLOMACY, GEORGIA, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, RUSSIA, STATE DEPARTMENT, TRADE, U.S. CONGRESS, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY 
So - the US will arm their little vassal state in the Caucasus, they will train their military and cart it back and forth to their various foreign occupations for the show of inernationality, they will provide them billions in economic aid , and the US will block any UNSC resolution asking for a cessation of hostilities when that vassal state lobs GRAD batteries into Tsinkhvali - but they won't keep their little rabid dog on a leash when it comes to finally getting Russia into the WTO?
Forget the WTO - Russia doesn't need it. Russia should concentrate on the Customs Union, the EEC, and the SCO...
Forget the WTO - Russia doesn't need it.
Read the article. It says Russia has to decide itself whether it needs the WTO or not. And stop barking like a little rabid dog.
Look, you may like Russia, you may hate Georgia... But don't be an idiot. US was never "arming" Georgia. How can you call an "train and equip" program "arming"? It's 15 million dollars per year. (MAJORITY of this money goes to officers for training of the Georgian PEACE-KEEPERS that will serve in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo...) You have to be COMPLETELY retarded or Mr.Lavrov (Which is the same thing) to say that this somehow creates a threat for Russian Federation (Which btw still occupies 20% of Georgia and keeps 85% of the population of the occupied regions away from their homes!) And again about "arming", Georgian army is being trained by ALL members of EU/NATO... the reason that you point out US is purely because you are a Soviet-head.
I finished reading your comment. It does not take very much to conclude that your are a modern Putins Bolshevik.
1) If you don't want WTO, WHY are you trying to join it since 1993? NOBODY is making you, you know...
2) As for "customs union" - Well seeing how you treat your neighbors... the same Lukashenko... same Nazarbaev I';m VERY skeptical that this might work, if it does I will not loose my sleep either. :)
3) Russia should consentrate on modernisation first and firmost. The first step would be arresting thugs in the Kremlin... Putana, Medveda and the rest of the gang... the second would be reforms reforms reforms... But Oh.. who am I talking with, it takes guts and EDUCATION! Go and sell your oil and gas... you are safe until that lasts... after you'll be all f@d again.
If you're surprised to hear the accusation that Georgia is an American puppet, you are clearly uninformed about Russian foreign policy. While it is highly doubtful that the US exercises the control over Georgia which Russia outwardly says that it does, two things are true. 1) Sakashvilli is an irresponsible fool who foolishly believed that he would get American assistance in taking on a Russian military behemoth in a very brutal campaign against regions which Georgia has had no control over for more than fifteen years, and 2) the US either did see or should have seen the 2008 crisis coming. The SecState was over there mere weeks before, the two sides were obviously posturing for war for months, Sakashvilli campaigned for election on the platform of taking South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and there were undoubtedly signs on the US intelligence radar. That does not mean that Russia is correct in saying that American controls Georgia as Russia seeks to control other nations in her near abroad. Instead, it means that the US should have seen this coming and was in the position to pressure Sakashvilli not to shoot himself in the foot. Moreover, claiming that Georgia is blameless and that the Russians have unfounded suspicions reflects a distinct lack of familiarity with the situation.
Russia needs to expand her trade possibilities. Her domestically-produced goods are of poor quality, and her oil and gas resources have too-volatile pricing to be the basis for their national economy. But there is going to be very little progress for Russia until she makes serious progress tackling her corruption problem. Nobody will want to invest if they cannot count on the law to protect their assets from illegitimate activities.
1) Russians and PUTIN specifically stated during the January 2008 live conference - "Is US recognizes Kosovo and if they will put missile defense program in Poland and Radar station in Czech republic we will TAKE ASYMMETRIC MEASURES, INCLUDING A MILITARY COMPONENT..." - The next day after that statement Russian 1st Channel (Kremlin propaganda peace... well they all are, but this is the favorite) stated - Russia will have the biggest military drills since the end of cold war, the drills where in 5km from the border with Georgia, near the Roki tunnel where Russia invaded Georgia from.
Georgian government was BEGGING both US/EU Not to recognize Kosovo and the answer was
basically:
"Oh don't you worry, we fully understand that these are two different cases, in Kosovo there where 2 million Albanians which made the absolute majority of the population, while in Abkhazia and "South Ossetia"(which was RENAMED by Russian Bolsheviks to that after this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_Uprising in 1924) the absolute majority of the population where Georgians and Russian army together with Chechen's changed this demographic by brutal ethnic cleanings of the Georgian civilian population in 1993, so these are different, we understand..."
In reality nobody cared... not to mention Putin has stated "If US recognises Kosovo, why can't we recognize Abkhazia for example?"
It was already clear, ANYBODY who has basic access to Russian "media" could understand that Russia was preparing for invasion, it was ABSOLUTELY clear, with Generals stating that they would do EVERYTHING in order to stop Georgia from entering NATO.
In April Bucharest NATO summit it was stated that georgia would join NATO, but in the future... the next time this question had to be raised in December 2008. So Russia had a time window to act and it did.
The things you where reading in US/EU media in general was based on the Russian media, what do you REALLY believe that your journalists have even the basic understanding of Georgian language? Or Georgian media? - They speak a little Russian and think that it's OK to cover the whole post Soviet space... well it is NOT.
There are other things like Russian Oil/Gas/ Markets/ Iran/ Afghanistan/ UN resolutions and in general how the hell would Sarkozy sell warshiops to putin if Putin has invaded Georgia?? How would Merkel sell so many cars to Russia or buy Oil and gas and sell it to others for more money? How would Berlusconi do the same? Naturally these bastards in EU (Sarko/Merkel/Berlusconi) had to portray Georgia as an aggressor and Saakashvili as a crazy leader. Bascially this is the same policy that the world saw in 1939 - "Let Georgia and Russia take care of themselves, this is not our problem..." (As if Georgia and Russia where equal)
Well I remind you - "The belief that security can be obtained by throwing a small state to the wolves is a fatal delusion." -Winston Churchill
2) Saakashvili did NOT have elections, he had to have elections because of the opposition protests after war. (majority of this people are directly payed by Kremlin and the reason they hate Saakashvili is generally because they turned to be openly corrupt in a government that in general is not corrupt.) And how can you honestly say that Saakashvili wanted a war with a country that has 1.6 million army around 350.000 of the elite Russian troops where at the border for MONTHS) and Saakashvili only has 27.000 with MAJORITY of them on summer vacations, Iraq, Afghanistan and Kosovo peacekeeping missions. With 2000 elite troops of Georgia (Trained by those Americans) IN IRAQ during the whole time of war. Georgia had only 9000 soldiers and 3000 (armed police - swat like structure) to fight the Russian army that was ALREADY THERE.
3) In August 4-5th of 2008 all the diplomats from EU/US where taken to see the remains of the Georgian villages Tamarasheni after heavy artillery bombings by the parts of the Russian 58th army. (Naturally they have submitted this information to their countries and there was absolutely no reaction.)
"the US either did see or should have seen the 2008 crisis coming."
- US/EU DID NOT CARE AND DO NOT CARE NOW!
"The SecState was over there mere weeks before, the two sides were obviously posturing for war for months" - She was there few days before and what do you mean "both sides"? Russian aircrafts have violated Georgian airspace exactly in the day of visit of Rice and have openly (for the first time) stated that they did so.
Also I probably need to thank US government for invading Iraq and raising Oil prices to historic 150$ per barre;l in the August 2008 which gave Russia more motives to invade it';s neighbor.
"Russia needs to expand her trade possibilities. Her domestically-produced goods are of poor qualit..."
- First of all they need to change the elite of the government, these people are all old generation and the new generation is already brainwashed - See "NASHI", see "MolGvardia" a next generation of Putinists... the most inhumane and cynical generation Russia has ever produced. And why would Russia change? Why? Both EU and US kiss Putins ass every time they have a chance, tell me that I'm wrong?
"Sakashvilli is an irresponsible fool"
- Well if you visit Georgia and see all the changes this "fool" has done in his country you might seriously consider changing your mind. Saakashvili is a great leader, not perfect, but Great. Have you been to Georgia before him? Visit this country again and see, it's a whole different place.
"who foolishly believed that he would get American assistance in taking on a Russian military behemoth"
- He never stated anything like that, quite the contrary, but he indeed believed that US would diplomatically not let Russia do what they did and mostly BEFORE the invasion. After invasion started to take place, there where no illusions, but he had to act.
" in a very brutal campaign against regions which Georgia has had no control over for more than fifteen years,"
- What exactly do you call "very brutal"? Did Georgians kill and rape any civilians? Did the other side do that? - THATS the whole difference! And who do you call "regions"? All the people who serve there are from Russian military FSB or GRU ...
John Hudson reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.
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