Monday, September 27, 2010 - 3:02 PM

The Obama administration has always been clear that the path to winning the war in Afghanistan goes through Pakistan. But if Bob Woodward's new book is accurate, the White House considers its war effort much more dependent on the success and survival of Pakistan's civilian government than was previously known.
Woodward's "Obama's Wars," which hit bookstores Monday, sheds new light on the Obama administration's vast outreach to the Pakistani civilian government led by President Asif Ali Zardari. It paints a picture of an administration working hard to court the Pakistanis while remaining somewhat confused about Pakistani thinking on a range of issues.
Obama himself was confused about the nature of Pakistani intentions during two crucial decision points in his administration's Afghan policy -- the March 2009 strategy rollout and the deliberations in November 2009, which resulted in a troop surge and a huge expansion of covert operations in Pakistan. However, based on advice from the majority of his key advisers, he nonetheless tried to entice Pakistan to commit to a deep and long-term partnership with the United States by offering the Zardari government incentive after incentive, with relatively few pressures.
According to Woodward's account, the centrality of Pakistan was championed early on by Bruce Riedel, the Brookings scholar who was brought on as a key figure in the Obama administration's March 2009 Afghanistan strategy review.
Riedel, who referred to Islamist extremists in Pakistan as the "real, central threat" to U.S. national security, personally convinced Obama, only two months after he took office, that Pakistan needed to be the centerpiece of his new strategy. Riedel's plan involved arming the Pakistani military for counterinsurgency and increasing economic and other forms of aid to the civilian government. This marked the beginning of the term "Af-Pak," which drove the administration's belief that stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan were inextricably linked.
Riedel's Pakistan focus was not due to his confidence that the civilian government could control the military and intelligence services. In fact, he referred to Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani as a "liar" with regards to the activities of the secretive Inter Services Intelligence agency (ISI), which is widely suspected of aiding the Taliban insurgency. Then Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair reportedly echoed Riedel's views on this matter.
Inside the administration, Blair argued that Obama was approaching Pakistan with too many carrots and not enough sticks. He at one point advocated bombing inside Pakistan and conducting raids there without the Pakistani government's approval. "I think Pakistan would be completely, completely pissed off and they would probably take actions against us ... but they would probably adjust," he once told Obama.
Obama, however, opted to pursue a less confrontational path. He concluded the central task would be convincing the Pakistani leadership to throw its lot in with the United States He said at the time of the initial strategy review in March 2009, "that we had to have a serious heart-to-heart with Pakistani civilian, military and intelligence leaders."
Later that year, when making the decision to send an additional 30,000 "surge" troops to Afghanistan, Obama knew that his plans to also expand the U.S. military presence in Pakistan and widen drone strikes would be a hard sell to the Zardari government. In an attempt to sweeten the deal, Obama framed the policy as a new "strategic partnership" with Pakistan, even tying the success of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan to the survival of Zardari and the legacy of his deceased wife Benazir Bhutto.
"I know that I am speaking to you on a personal level when I say that my commitment to ending the ability of these groups to strike at our families is as much about my family's security as it is about yours," Obama wrote in a letter to Zardari delivered by National Security Advisor Jim Jones and counterterrorism advisor John Brennan.
Zardari's response to that letter reinforced what many in the administration already suspected: Pakistan's government was in the grips of an internal struggle over whether to embrace the United States. Zardari's initial response focused heavily on India, though the Pakistani president only referred obliquely to his country's strategic rival. Woodward reports that the White House believed the letter was written by the Pakistani military and the ISI. However, the Zardari government did end up accepting Obama's offer.
Obama's top advisors told the U.S. president that he would have to accept something short of complete success in convincing Pakistan to turn away from its longstanding obsession with the military threat it perceives from India.
When Obama had a meeting with Zardari in May 2009, he told the Pakistani president the he did not want U.S. taxpayers to be funding Pakistan's military buildup against India "We are trying to change our world view," Zardari told Obama, "but it's not going to happen overnight."
At times, Obama was downright puzzled by his advisors' advice regarding Pakistan. For example, intelligence reports confirmed that Pakistani officials were afraid that the United States would leave Afghanistan too early, as they believed had occurred after the end of the resistance to the Soviet regime in the 1980s. On the other hand, Pakistan worried that if the United States was too involved in Afghanistan, it might aid in the establishment of a larger Afghan army than Islamabad was comfortable with.
"What am I to believe?" Obama asked his senior staff. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Special Representative Richard Holbrooke, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates all told him these were the types of contradictions that were commonplace when dealing with Pakistan.
For its part, the Pakistani government was just as confused and puzzled by the Obama administration. Woodward recounts one anecdote, in which Zardari tells the former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad that he believed the United States was involved in orchestrating attacks by the Pakistani Taliban against the Pakistani civilian government.
Pakistan's Ambassador to Washington Husain Haqqani, a key go-between, tried several times to explain to the Obama administration how to court Pakistani leaders, comparing the dynamic to "a man who is trying to woo a woman."
"We all know what he wants from her. Right?" Haqqani said in a meeting with Jones, Deputy National Security Advisor Tom Donilon and the NSC's Gen. Doug Lute.
"But she has other ideas. She wants to be taken to the theater. She wants that nice new bottle of perfume," Haqqani told them. "If you get down on one knee and give the ring, that's the big prize. And boy, you know, it works."
Haqqani said the "ring" was official U.S. recognition of Pakistan's nuclear program as legitimate. He also warned that the Pakistanis would always ask for the moon as a starting point in negotiations. He compared it to the salesmanship of rug merchants.
"The guy starts at 10,000 and you settle for 1,200," Haqqani told the Obama team. "So be reasonable, but never let the guy walk out of the shop without a sale."
Although the Obama administration has had some success improving the relationship between the two governments, Pakistan's civilian leadership still faces a series of difficulties in its goal of exerting control over its entire national security structure. Stability has also been threatened by the enormous pressures resulting from the war that it is waging inside its own borders, and political attacks leveled against it from the media and the courts. Zardari's perceived sluggish response to the devastating flood crisis has cost him even more credibility among the Pakistani public.
But while the end of Zardari regime has often been predicted, it appears that he will remain in place for the foreseeable future. The Obama administration, meanwhile, is aware of how crucial his cooperation remains for the success of the mission in Afghanistan.
When Woodward sat down for his interview with Obama earlier this year, he asked the president if the situation was still that Pakistan is the centerpiece of the U.S. strategy. "It continues to this day," Obama replied.
Pete Souza/White House via Getty Images
If the White House is banking on the Pakistani civilian/military leadership, the odds are that failure is an inevitable reality.
Pakistan is an impossible adventure; treacherous, hostile, hot and hasty. Pakistan is a quagmire, a can of worms; it's an 'uncool' proposition.
Those running US foreign policy are remarkable folks. They are the best in business, seasoned campaigners who know and understand the ins and outs of diplomacy. No matter how tough it is, we need to impose confidence and trust on the Obama administration.
As for Pakistan, that nation has basically lost its way. It's a rudderless ship that is missing a level-headed, pragmatic leader.
Pakistan the lost world and lost battle for the US
Bending heavily towards Pakistan by the US seems that they have never taken proper lesson nor they are serious enough to make a stable and sustain growth in that region. Their venture to make Pakistan a Democracy is only a Day Dream, as Militancy, Terrorism and Naked Fundamentalism are Pakistan's natural heredity. The more the US spent on the Pakistan, the more they appreciate Pak's agony and involvement in exporting terror towards its neighbouring countries. So instead of banking on the Pakistani Government, they should pressurize them to stop terror.
International English Language Testing System
Amb. Husain Haqqani is a "go to" kind of guy. More his thoughts future posts.
White House is betting on the WRONG horse
All US government officials including Obama have to know by now that it is Pakistani Army that calls the shots in Pakistan, not the civilian government. If they don’t, they are chasing a ’mirage’ by betting on Pakistan’s civilian government. When it comes to Pakistan, its democratic governments have always been subservient to military at least since 1952 when Pakistan’s first prime minister was murdered by Pakistani Army.
Aside from being subservient to Army, Pakistan’s civilian governments have not been too different from Pakistani Army when it comes to terrorism as US officials have to know just as well.
Let us NOT forget that it was democratic government of Pakistan that facilitated of its own free will the relocation of Osama bin laden from Sudan to Afghanistan in 1996 despite US protests.
Let us NOT forget that Pakistani Army and Intelligence created what Bruce Reidel called ‘this jihadist Frankenstein monster’ of their own free will with the approval and full financing provided by Pakistan’s democratic governments in 1990s.
Let us NOT forget that Osama bin Laden publicly congratulated Pakistan’s democratic government for exploding world’s first Islamic nuclear bomb in 1998.
Let us NOT forget that Osama bin Laden contributed millions of Pakistani Rupees to Nawaz Sharif’s election campaign in 1990 and reelection campaign in 1996.
So Obama administration is betting on a wrong horse if it is relying on Pakistan’s civilian government to tame Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan when that civilian government is clearly supporting and financing Pakistani ISI’s sheltering of Mullah Omar’s QST, Haqqani’s HQN and Hekmatyar’s HiG to continue Taliban insurgency against US/NATO troops in Afghanistan.
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