Friday, September 24, 2010 - 11:40 PM

The Chinese government is secretly reaching out to the Obama administration with the message that they want to improve strained U.S.-China relations ahead of President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington next January.
White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs confirmed Thursday that the Chinese Communist Party leader will make a state visit to Washington to hold a summit with President Obama in January, although no specific date has been set. Hu and Obama met Thursday on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, amid increasing regional angst at what the Obama administration and several East Asian countries see as China's increasingly aggressive and arrogant foreign policy.
Recently, the Chinese have been sending out "Track 2" messages, or informal communiqués, to the United States, indicating that they now want to restart military-to-military relations, which were established in 2009 but cut off by Beijing earlier this year, an administration official told The Cable. In response, the administration is dispatching an interagency team led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Schiffer to Beijing next week to meet with Chinese officials.
The Obama administration does not want the military relationship between the two countries to become a bargaining chip that the Chinese can use to voice their displeasure with U.S. policy. Their argument is that military cooperation is in both countries' interests -- not a reward. If China agrees to restart cooperation without any direct incentives, that's a win for the Obama team.
"From our perspective we believe a stable and reliable mil to mil relationship is in the interests of both countries," the official said. "We want something that is continuous through times of friction, with crisis management mechanisms to avoid conflict. The lack of consistent dialogue increases the risks of miscalculation or misunderstanding."
There are several recent actions by the Chinese that have alienated their neighbors. In addition to trying to assert control over the South China Sea, a move that angered Southeast Asian leaders, Beijing also ruined its relationship with South Korea by supporting North Korea after the sinking of the South Korean ship Cheonan.
This month, China took retaliatory measures against Japan after Tokyo arrested a Chinese boat captain for ramming his ship against Japanese Coast Guard boats near the disputed Senkaku Islands. This is another example of what many see as Beijing overplaying its hand and taking its new international confidence too far.
"This sort of behavior by the Chinese is not exactly winning hearts and minds in the region. You can have a policy difference without engaging in dangerous behavior," the official said.
The Obama administration has made a deliberate and calculated shift in its approach to China over the last few months, deciding to resist more forcefully Chinese efforts to expand their influence and control over regional issues, and to coordinate their China policy more closely with regional allies and partners.
The first public display of this new approach surfaced when Defense Secretary Robert Gates lambasted the Chinese People's Liberation Army for cutting off military to military relations during his trip to Singapore in May.
"The PLA is significantly less interested in this relationship than the political leadership of China," Gates said after being refused permission to visit China as part of that trip.
The second major public display of the Obama administration's new approach was when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton shocked the Chinese leadership by announcing that the United States would lead a multilateral effort to resist Chinese claims of ownership of the South China Sea. Several Southeast Asian nations rose up in support of the U.S. action.
"The Obama administration's approach to the South China Sea was a very important and well-crafted response to Chinese assertiveness. Such strength is a vital element of our China strategy, and sends a message to Beijing that the United States will protect its interests," said Abe Denmark, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
China watchers see Beijing's secret outreach to Washington as a realization that they overplayed their hand and are now trying to do some damage control.
"There was that period toward the end of last year and the beginning of this year when the popular thinking in China was that the U.S. had run its course and China had more leverage and so can push their agenda a bit. Now there's a move to tamp down the Chinese sense of triumphalism," said Charles Freeman Jr., who holds the Freeman Chair (no relation) for China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Freeman sees the administration's shift as not really a change in policy so much as a change in attitude.
"[The Obama administration] has less interest in sucking up and showing deference to China, because that didn't work, but there's been no official shift in policy. It's just that they're a little fed up with the arrogance," he said.
Not all China hands are convinced that Beijing is ready to play nice, especially in light of the ongoing spat with Japan, in which Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen has committed the United States to support Tokyo.
"After this latest case with Japan, they haven't learned very much," said Dan Blumenthal, a former Pentagon official who worked on China policy and is now with the American Enterprise Institute. "I don't think there's a realization in China that they've overplayed their hand. They're causing all the countries around the region to fear them and want more involvement by the U.S."
Many analysts see China's aggressiveness as an indication that the PLA is gaining influence inside the Chinese system in the run up to a 2012 leadership transition. The Washington Post reported Friday on the various tensions pulling and pushing policy within the sprawling Beijing bureaucracy.
The one thing the administration, panda huggers, and China hawks can all agree on is that nobody really knows what Chinese intentions are regarding the United States and what exactly this latest outreach will mean.
"Schiffer and others have to go over there and figure out if this is just another attempt at warm and fuzzies or if there's something real there," Freeman said.
MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images
China's International Relations
The Japanese have now released the Chinese captain of that fishing boat. He should not have been arrested in the first place anyway as he and his crew were only fishing and the ownership of those islands are in dispute.
China has also amicably settled her land borders to the west and, with several of the countries there, they form the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China and the rest of the SCO have just finished an anti-terrorism drill in Kazakhstan. In addition, China is helping Pakistan out with flood relief as well as building infrastructure in the Gilgit-Baltistan region. China is helping to develop the infrastructure in parts of Africa and does a lot of trade there.
China can also have good relations with the West even as a rising power. A very good example is Australia. Australia is a very big trading partner with China these days and that contributed to Australia avoiding the global financial crisis. China pays for the goods that she imports from Australia and invests over there. In turn, Australia has large investments in China. Relations between Australia and China, while not as close as that of Australia and the USA, is nevertheless good.
Recently, both the Australians and the Chinese had some of their naval ships visit the other country’s ports. By all accounts the reciprocal visits were a success. In addition, the two navies are having joint drills off the Yellow Sea. It seems the Australians have a more objective view of global matters and her navy spokesman said that the China-USA disagreements have nothing to do with Australia. The Australians also realize that the Americans trying to put a coalition behind-the-scenes against China is not going to work and will probably make things worse than they need be.
Dude, American involvement to contain China has really provoked China to retailiate in full measure.
You don't think Americans are afraid of China's rise and therefore is strategically beefing up Okinawan Japanese security base, beefing up defense relations with S. Korea, and backing South East Asian states in Chinese territory disputes to show that America-Asian NATO will counter China's potential rise?
America is afraid, therefore protecting her interest. China is retailiating against America's pre-emptive Asian NATO movement, and therefore is labelled "aggression"?
America is self-interested beyond repair. That is why she is a declining Superpower, it's something inherent that Americans do not see, but the rest of the world sees.
US arrogance at it's best.
America is being used by smaller Asian states as a temporary buffer against China's rise.
However, China's dominance of Asia is assured.
America, be prepared to pack up and to stay back into your own hemisphere. The East will eventually belong to China, and an America-Asian NATO alliance is in the long run, bad for China's smaller neighbors.
US cannot be the world's policemen forever.
In the next 50 years, America will decline her influence in East Asia for sure. Other nations knows this, America is being used temporarily short term to hedge against China's rise.
China is playing US for a 'fool'
China’s attempt for temporary truce with US has been necessitated by its own strategic reasons that Josh Rogin does NOT seem to realize. This Chinese overture is NOT much different than China agreeing to revalue its currency to fend off US pressure recently while in actuality Chinese currency hasn’t appreciated significantly since that promise. Like an elephant, China has different teeth for show and for chewing.
First order of business for China right now is to ’Finlandize’ Japan after recent spat between the two over the capture of a Chinese captain. So China is trying everything it can to ’demonize’ Japan. And US has adopted a hands-off approach to that spat, admonishing both to settle their dispute amicably. So clearly US does NOT accept Japan’s claim to disputed islands even though US knows that Japan has owned those islands since 1895 and US itself had handed those islands over to Japan in 1972.
Japan can NOT depend on US nuclear umbrella because US, having become weak after Iran/Afghan wars, is in no position to challenge China or go to war with China over Japan‘s claim to some islands.
Poor Japan, the economic giant but military midget has to buckle under Chinese pressure. Having allowed its economy become so dependent on Chinese imports and exports, Japan is increasingly going to ’Finlandize’ and come under China’s domination unless Japan develops its own nuclear weapons arsenal to match that of China or even surpass it since China is so much bigger and mightier than Japan.
China has learned from Pakistan
China has learned a lesson or two from Pakistan as to how to play US for a ‘fool’. While supporting and sheltering Taliban insurgency’s Afghan leaders, Pakistan has successfully convinced US that Pakistan is genuinely fighting Taliban to support US Afghan mission!
Japan's navy is already, by country level, the second biggest after the USA. Until recently she had the second largest defense budget per annum after the USA ( a distant second I might add). China has recently overtaken Japan in expenditure per year but her navy is still not as big nor as capable. In addition for the land mass and population that China has, her defense budget would be considered middle of the road. Japan is worried that going forward China because of her population and growing economy will eventually becoame the dominant Asian power. The Japanese fears are only a reflection of their darker side as when they were the dominant power in the end of the 19th century up to the middle of the 20th it was their vicious side showing.
As for the USA invading Iraq and Afghanistan, no other country asked for those invasions.
Josh,
Obama did not meet Hu on Thursday at the UN.
He met the Prime minister (Hu was not in NYC)
Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.
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