When the international community convenes Thursday
in New York to organize a relief fund for Pakistan, expect key officials from
the United States and other countries to argue that failing to support Pakistan
in its time of need yields
ground in the war against Islamic extremists.
The Obama administration has already pledged $90
million in relief funds, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will
announce additional support Thursday, according to Mark Ward, the acting director
for USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance.
Meanwhile, in the Swat Valley, the epicenter of the
devastating floods that have affected as many as 20 million Pakistanis, militant
groups are competing with the government and the international community,
demonizing international aid efforts, and even using
the crisis as a chance to foment new violence, including coordinated
attacks by militants against Pakistani police stations near the Afghan
border.
The Pakistani civilian leadership hasn't helped
itself.
Reports
of the lack of international assistance in some of the devastated areas
highlight ordinary Pakistanis' frustration with their government, led by
President Asif Ali Zardari, who
spent the first few days of the crisis in Europe, including a widely criticized
sojourn at his family's chateau in France. The Wall Street Journalreported
Wednesday that U.S. government officials have been deeply frustrated with
Zardari's response to the crisis.
Over the last year and a half, the Obama
administration has sought to strengthen the Zardari government's legitimacy as
a means toward improving overall U.S.-Pakistan relations, but also to bolster
the fight against the Taliban and other militant groups that operate in
Pakistan's northern regions -- the very same regions hit hardest by the floods.
The flood crisis and its aftereffects "have the
potential to further weaken an already weak Pakistani state," a new report by the
Congressional Research Service warns. "Such a scenario would make it more
difficult to achieve the U.S. goal of neutralizing anti-Western terrorists in
Pakistan."
The report spells out several ways the flood could
exacerbate security problems in Pakistan, such as by expanding ungoverned areas,
creating "dispossessed" Pakistanis that could serve as a new recruiting base
for militant groups, or even by sowing confusion that could lead to open
conflict with India.
When Clinton, Special Representative Richard Holbrooke, and Pakistani
Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi
kick off tomorrow's event, they will implore the international community to do
more to show solidarity with the Pakistani people, whose situation is only
getting worse by the day.
One of the arguments they will make is that the
international community must compete with organizations with ties to the
militants, such as the Jamaat ud-Dawah (JUD), an Islamist charity organization
banned by the U.N. The JUD has reportedly been active in flood-relief efforts.
"We're aware of the reports related to organizations
such as JUD," said Frank Ruggiero,
Holbrooke's new chief deputy. "We think that the support that the international
community can provide is on such a scale beyond what can be provided by
organizations such as that."
The stated short term-need, according to the U.N.,
is $450 million, but that doesn't cover long term relief and reconstruction. Countries including
France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Greece, and
Estonia have each pledged less than $1 million so far. Even Afghanistan, one of
the poorest countries on Earth, has
pledged a full $1 million. Overall, the U.N. has received pledges for less
than half of the $450 million total.
"As the scale of this flood is so dramatic, the
United States continues to call on the international community to provide the
people of Pakistan with the support it needs at this dire time," said Ruggiero.
"This crisis will get worse before it gets better. This is also a
long-term crisis and it affects the vast majority of Pakistan."
Eric Schwartz, assistant secretary of state for population,
refugees, and migration, said that the multitude of humanitarian crises around
the world has been rising and many countries may simply be wary of contributing
to yet another massive relief effort.
"Donor
fatigue is an issue, but I think it's not an issue for the United States,"he said. "There's no question that the
world economic situation, as a general matter, has had an impact on the ability
of many governments around the world to give, and give generously. It just
makes it all the more important that the United States of America plays such a
strong leadership role on international humanitarian response."
U.N. Secretary General Ban
Ki Moonvisited the flood area Monday and criticized the pace of the
international funding assistance.
"I am here also to urge the world community to speed up their
assistance to Pakistan," he said. "Waves of flood must be met with waves
of support from the world."
Firstly, these strong monsoon rains are a direct result of Climate Change / Global Warming. These strong monsoons are affecting a very large area from Pakistan through India, China and all the way to Korea with torrential rains, mud slides and Noah's Floods.
Climate Change is now our constant partner, so will these torrential rains, mud slides and Noah's Floods.
This strong weather system has affected Pakistan this year but it is bound to affect India and Bangladesh in the next year or two, again and again, and will wash away all the investments Americans have made in India. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
Secondly, no half measures or pittance in aid will control the problem. We need real civil and environmental engineers to suggest large scale ways to control and manage this new menace to construct anew in over-populated and very poor Pakistan, India and Bangladesh etc. And these may include re-building villages on higher ground, dredging of rivers and canals, building more dams and water catches and innovative ideas like building a space shield over the Tibetan plateau from heating up too much and thus drawing too much moisture laden air from the Indian Ocean.
Third, none of these poor Asian countries can manage disasters of such large scale brought about by Climate Change which is a direct result of West’s over industrialization and is the primary cause of Climate Change. The UN or some other body has to be built with adequate number helicopters, airboats, blimps, cargo planes that can be brought into action on short notice.
20 million people are affected in Pakistan alone in an area the size of Italy or England. Next year 200 million people will be affected in India and these disasters are going to continue to unfold again and again for the foreseeable future.
Fourth, the 20 million have lost their houses, their crops and their entire livelihoods. They are hungry, they are thirsty and they are angry. A French revolution is brewing in Pakistan. The miniscule 1% middleclass of Pakistan may have to migrate en masse if the great unwashed reach the cities of the rich.
Are there any statesmen, with clarity of thought, left in this world?
lalqila.wordpress.com
Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.
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