Mark down Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Bob Corker, R-TN, as an undecided
leaning toward supporting President Obama's
nuclear-arms reductions treaty with Russia.
Everybody interested in New START in Washington has been
trying to do their own whip counts of GOP senators to see if Obama will be able get the eight to 10 Republican votes he will need to put the
agreement into effect. Only one GOP senator (Richard Lugar, R-IN) has declared he will definitely support it.
Just two (Jim DeMint, R-SC, and James Inhofe, R-OK) have said they will
definitely vote no.
But there was much angst when all seven Republicans on the
SFRC, except for Lugar, wrote
to Chairman John Kerry, D-MA, on
June 29 to complain that he was going too fast by pledging to move the treaty out
of committee by the August recess. Corker signed that letter.
This week, the administration has been working those seven senators
hard, and it seems to be working. Corker visited Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday to talk about
the treaty. Today, The Cable chased
him down (literally) in the subway that connects the Capitol building to the Senate
office buildings, and he said "I'm undecided but I'm very open [to supporting
the treaty]."
Corker said he's not thrilled with the agreement but he's not
opposed to the idea of reducing the nuclear arsenal on its face, unlike former
governor Mitt Romney, who
is raising cash based on his opposition to the pact. All Corker wants is a
robust plan for nuclear modernization -- upgrading the United States' existing
stockpile of atomic weapons and making sure they are in great condition -- and
he should be good to go.
"The big issue at the end of the day in my opinion that's
going to affect the approval of the treaty is going to be the real commitment
to modernization and a real concrete plan over time of what specifically is
going to happen," he said. "If we knew everything we had was modern and up to
date, we could reduce even more."
That roughly matches the position of Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl, R-AZ, who is furiously
negotiating with the administration and Kerry to come to some agreement to move
the treaty forward. Your humble Cable guy
overheard a conversation in the hallway between a leading Democratic senator and
a top staffer about a letter from President Obama to Kyl that was in the works,
meant to alleviate Kyl's skepticism about the deal.
Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, who led the negotiations, briefed committee
members Wednesday morning behind closed doors. Defense Secretary Robert Gates came to Capitol Hill
Tuesday to make the case to the GOP. It's been reported that Vice President Joseph Biden is leading the administration's
negotiations with Kyl. The full-court press is on.
As for modernization, the administration's fiscal 2011
budget request does have extensive funding for modernization, but Republicans want
a longer-term plan. The Energy Department submitted its idea for that program
to Congress in May, which was leaked and then published by the
Federation of American Scientists. The DOE thinks the total effort could
cost $175 billion.
The timing aspect is crucial because the GOP might want to
stall long enough to deny Obama a foreign-policy victory before the November
election. Another reason for Republicans to stall could be that they plan to
vote for the treaty, but don't want to have to defend it before the elections
to conservative voters across the country who are hearing from Romney & co.
that the treaty weakens America.
For the Democrats, they know they can't wait until the new
Congress gets seated, when even more GOP votes will likely be needed. So a
possible compromise being discussed is to pass it during the lame-duck session
in December, when senators can somewhat disregard the politics. It's too early
to say that's the plan ... yet.
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