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2012 Foreign Policy Agenda
Posted By Josh Rogin
Tuesday, June 29, 2010 - 7:24 PM
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In an interview in his office Tuesday, Israel's ambassador to the United States warned that Iran might unleash a wave of terrorist violence in the Middle East in retaliation for the tough new sanctions that passed the U.S. Congress last week.
"What better way to divert attention from a sanctions regime than by starting another Middle East war?" the ambassador, historian and author Michael Oren, asked. Iran might respond to severe restrictions on its ability to buy gasoline and finance its state-owned companies by returning to the negotiating table, or use its connections to Hezbollah and Hamas to fight back by having those groups attack Israel and perhaps others, Oren said.
"The next step is not to fall into that trap," Oren said, arguing that the international community shouldn't be deterred from enforcing the sanctions. The question would then be who can hold out longer, the international community-or the regime in Tehran.
The sanctions might work to convince Iranian leaders to change their calculus over their nuclear program, if the energy measures are enforced, Oren said. The test of whether the sanctions are having an effect will be if the Iranian regime reacts, either by coming back to the negotiating table or waging a proxy war on Israel or the West.
CIA Director Leon Panetta said Sunday that Iran was likely two years away from having a nuclear weapon. Without getting into specifics, Oren said Israeli estimates "dovetail" with U.S. intelligence conclusions, but that Israel believes that Iran has made the decision to weaponize nuclear material, while U.S. officials have only concluded that Tehran is on that path.
He said he did not believe that the Obama administration was meeting in any way with Hamas, as some in the militant group have reportedly claimed. Oren said that no one should deal with Hamas, which he called a "genocidal, racist organization."
Iran and Hamas will be near the top of the agenda next week when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comes to Washington. On July 6, Netanyahu will meet with Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates before moving on to New York. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will still be on her Europe trip.
One key aim of the short visit will be to show that the U.S.-Israel relationship is healthy and that the White House isn't avoiding a public embrace of the Israeli government.
"There will be a big public component of this trip that will remove any perception of snubbery," Oren said. "There's going to be a lot of photographers," he joked, referring to the fact that at the last Obama-Netanyahu meeting, no pictures were ever taken -- and the two leaders' conversation was widely reported to be tense and unproductive.
A shift, not a rift
Oren also responded to reports that he told a private group that U.S.-Israel relations were "are in a state of tectonic rift in which continents are drifting apart."
He acknowledged that the U.S. approach to Israel had changed since President Obama took office, but said that it has both positive and negative consequences for an Israel that is adapting to the new atmosphere.
"The Obama administration is not a status-quo administration; it came in with a policy of change," Oren said. "It's not headed in a direction of abandonment, it's a shift and our job is to figure where that shift is going and how to adapt."
He also predicted that as the Obama administration gets more experience in dealing with Middle East politics, it will slowly but surely come back around to agreeing with more and more of Israel's positions.
"My working assumption is that any encounter by American policymakers with Middle East realities almost invariably redounds to Israel's favor," he said.
Oren pushed back at reports that senior Obama administration officials are all over the map on Israel policy. The conventional wisdom pits National Security Advisor Jim Jones and U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice as advocating a tougher line, while Biden and the National Security Council's Dennis Ross are said to be more inclined toward the Israeli position. According to Oren, in private communications, the messages are all identical.
Oren's real worry is not the White House, but Democrats in Congress. "My deep concern is that American support of Israel will become a partisan issue," he said, referring to a Jan. 26 letter urging Israel to ease the Gaza blockage that was signed by 54 Democrats and zero Republicans.
Oren said he was discomforted by attempts from some Republican quarters calling Obama "anti-Israel". He also said that statements from Democrats immediately after the flotilla incident were often harsher on Israel than Republican ones.
What's next for Gaza
Meanwhile, the Obama administration is still seeking further "adjustments" in Israel's Gaza blockade, Oren said, including opening additional border crossings, giving a greater role to the Palestinian Authority, and adding international observers, perhaps from the European Union.
Israel would love to see more of a Palestinian Authority presence in Gaza, but opening another crossing or adding EU monitors is dangerous, he warned.
"We've had EU observers there before. Hamas threatened them, and they ran away," Oren said. "If you send them to Gaza, they're likely to get killed."
Oren said the Gaza blockade was not just vital to Israel's security, but vital for the pursuit of a two-state solution as well.
"Once you open up the sea lanes to Gaza, that spells the end of the peace process," he said.
He defended the Israeli-led investigation into the Gaza flotilla incident as a "South Korea-style investigation" on a smaller scale, referring to the international team that, in conjunction with South Korean experts, determined that Pyongyang was responsible for sinking a South Korean naval vessel.
Oren said the Israeli government has no idea if U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will launch or support a new international investigation on top of the Israeli probe. He also said he has never asked, nor has he been told, whether the Obama administration would vigorously oppose such an investigation if and when it surfaces.
"Why make an issue of something that's not even happening as far as we know?" Oren said, explaining Israeli thinking on the subject. "To the best of our knowledge, the U.S. is saying that our investigation fulfills the request for transparency and international participation."
How can anyone trust the rogue Zionist state after their daily atrocities around the world? The killing of dozen unarmed civilian on the international water, the "Goldston" report by the UN. All these shows how the Zionists use us and our clout to hide from the International justice. How naive are we re to allow them to get away with blood on their hands!?
How are we justify these for our children as they will find out for themselves. We can't continue support for an apartheid state with open air concentration camp called Gaza. did n't we go to war with the Nazi Germany to free people from concentration camp? How can these people allow such a thing exists after what they went through? didn't they learn anything?
"How can anyone trust the rogue Zionist state after their daily atrocities around the world?"
How can anyone take seriously a writer who starts a comment with a statement like that? When attempting to achieve consensus, one should at least start with a statement with which all can agree.
"The killing of dozen unarmed civilian on the international water". I suppose this means Esther hasn't seen the videos of these armed civilians attacking the IDF soldiers sent to stop the ship. Or read about the soldier who sustained a serious knife wound. Or how they were sent on board with paint-ball rifles, with only hand guns as a contingency.
I blame Israel for this. Israel went in assuming that there would be no armed resistance as in previous encounters. Shame on Israel for not preparing for a violent civilian scenario.
Israel gave Gaza what they wanted and withdrew the occupation forces hoping for peace. Gaza and Hamas rewarded that good will gesture with over 6000 rockets.
How can we accept ignorant and uninformed comments from the likes of Esther Haman? Unfortunately, news articles on Israel and Palestine are filled with similarly uneducated comments.
"Withdrawing occupying forces as a goodwill gesture". Really? Well, how about giving them a peace prize? What a noble deed, leaving after ransacking a whole region...
How dare you talking about "armed people". There is NO WEAPON on the Gaza Flotilla. So there are no armed people! Israeli forces have raided the mavi marmara on the midnight and ?nternational waters. They attacked the ships with bombs, guns etc. Various statements from different activists explained that israeli forces shoot first without warning. Shame on you Israel and ?ts heartless supporters.
Hey genious before you get so mad why don't you look at
some video which is online and many news organizations have showed the " peace activists" with weapons, look at the weapons found on the ship, listen to their sttements that these so called humanatarians made before the floatilla, the group has terrorists tied and reuters has published pictures of them standing with weapons over a bloody Israeli soldier, of course reuters tried to hide and photoshop the weapons while someone else found the original picture on a different website, funny how you talk when you don't know what you are talking about.
What more do you need to prove to you these were nbot humanatarians look at the evidence, If Israel just wanted to kill peole they would have easily drowned the ship, they freaking carried paintball guns, I hope you have some rockets shot at you and your family and we'll see how you react than when a terror supporting group attcks your soldiers. I know what our soldiers are like and we don't kill for no reason only in self defense.
Get your facts straight
Bullshit is what you are full of Sena
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvS9PXZ3RWM&feature=player_embedded
No weapons? Are you kidding me? There were batshit crazy turks with knives, guns, firebombs, and pipes. Why are you defending the crazy, fundamentalist elements of your society? If these were such great peace activists, why weren't you out there supporting them? Because they are IHH fringe crazies.
And I suppose every picture of weapons found on the ship are "doctored" zionist "propaganda." Such is the mind of the foolish man.
Do you even read your own comment? "the videos of these armed civilians attacking the IDF soldiers sent to stop the ship. Or read about the soldier who sustained a serious knife wound. Or how they were sent on board with paint-ball rifles," LOL. The IDF sustained wounds from paint ball and knife!? While they are shooting unprovoked at civilians and killing a dozen of them! OOH poor little IDF soldiers..that must have heart really bad..they got booboos now...poor little things. This is a clear act of piracy on the international waters.
Get a hold of yourself. How can anyone defend this illegal act of murder and blame an unarmed flotilla that is carrying relief supplies for one of the open air concentration camps in the apartheid rogue Zionists state? There is another name for it too 3rd Reich.
"My working assumption is that any encounter by American policymakers with Middle East realities almost invariably redounds to Israel's favor," he said.
How can it be otherwise when Israel speaks with the voice of civilization and Palestine speaks from a culture of hate? Their English language materials know how to manipulate western media, but their Arabic language materials are thoroughly hateful of Israel and never stop calling for its destructions.
I don't see Iran going to war. I see Israel starting one war after another, yet always pointing finger at other countries. While I have deep respect for Mr. Oren, as a historian, this kind of frenzying seems really out of place here. The Iranian leadership is talking nonsense, they know it and Israel knows it. They have no real initiative to go to war whit Israel or any other country. Ahmedinajad only need that kind of rhetoric to keep his own regime floating, will never start any wars. Israel know that exactly, but they need him as a great enemy, to keep their even more oppressing regime (one word: Gaza) above water.
Point is: while Iran talks a lot about the destruction of Israel, Israel is in fact warmongering (Syria, Lebanon, Palestine). Know the difference and who is really a threat to peace.
"I see Israel starting one war after another" - those darn Israelis! Hezbollah kidnaps & kills their soldiers and rockets villages in the north, and what do they do? Start a war! Hamas shoots 7000 rockets on their cities in the south, and what do they do? Start a war! Such warmongers. And all that in a region filled with peaceful, prosperous nations like Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.
since its creation, israel has been telling lies, fairytales, and fables, and we here in america, believe every word they say. its funny how, just a few months ago, the CIA reported iran was 4-5 years away from a nuke and now they are 2 years away. all reports on nukes state that anyone enriching uranium needs to reach a 90% level, and yet after all this time, the iranians are just about to reach 20%, so how is it that in the last 8 years they are now reaching 20% and yet in 2 years they will be able to make a bomb. seriously? how long are going to continue to cater to israel's nonsense, please explain how this country benefits us in any way possible. it has not natural resources we need, its military alliance is more of a burden on us, than an asset, and it has made us the the biggest hypocrit in the world. if the israelis think they are big boys, let them take on the likes of hamas, hezbollah, and iran on their own.
Certainly given the latest Israeli military actions
i'ts clear that Israel is just itching to get something started with Iran. The stationing of nuclear armed Israeli submarines off the Iranian coast. The basing of Israeli forces in Azerbaizhan and Georgia, and the passage of Israeli surface ships through the Suez Canal are all indicative of setting the stage for a major military operation. At the very least these are extremely provocative acts by an aggressive power.
And who is Israel to tell us that the United States government should not be talking to Hamas, or to the European Union, telling them that the Gazans are bad people who will probably kill EU observers? And it's even more ridiculous of this guy to worry about Israel becoming a "partisan matter" in US domestic politics when it's been established how much Israeli foreign policy and American neocon policies are just twins seperated at birth.
In Israel, it can be truly said that denial is more than just the name of a river.
"At the very least these are extremely provocative acts by an aggressive power."
Really?! Ahmedinajad and the Ayatollah's constanlty stating that they want to wipe Israel off the map is not provocative? Coupled with their desire for a nuclear bomb? coupled with their continued support of hizbollah, Hamas, and Syria? Tied in with Iran's threats towards its regional neighbors like Saudi Arabia and its support for Yemeni rebels against the government forces? Oh, yeah, Israel is definitely the provocateur.
And Israel saying don't negotiate with a terrorist entity...Hamas? I don;t know what if foreign powers negotiated with the black panther movement in the 1970s? Would the U.S. like that? Or if someone aided the tamil tigers... would sri lanka like that? How about someone supporting the chechen rebels. How would russia respond to that?
And the "neocons" in power? Umm, if you haven't been aware, we've had a new president and administration in power for quite some time.
first off all, it is to difficult to attack iran because iran isn't iraq. these people never want to be under other governmets management.and iran is a powerfull.
secondly, l don't believe that how some people try to indicate us that people on gaza are terorist. they have no weapen,no food,no techonolgy. they just want their freedom and we have to help them.
haha, no weapon no food no technology....
riiiiiight. No weapons....minus the anti-tank, rpgs, anti-aircraft, small arms, grenades, land mines, and homeade rockets that they have stockpiled.......then yeah discounting all those tons of war material, I guess they don't have anything.
No food....umm yeah over 14 tons of aid each week. No one starved to death ever in gaza or died from malnutrition. They have markets full of food.
http://rr-bb.com/showthread.php?138299-The-Unseen-Gaza
1938
"Let us not ignore the truth among ourselves … politically we are the aggressors and they defend themselves… The country is theirs, because they inhabit it, whereas we want to come here and settle down, and in their view we want to take away from them their country."
–David Ben Gurion, quoted on pp 91-2 of Chomsky's “Fateful Triangle”, which appears in Simha Flapan's "Zionism and the Palestinians pp 141-2 citing a 1938 speech.
Before [the Palestinians] very eyes we are possessing the land and the villages where they, and their ancestors, have lived… We are the generation of colonizers, and without the steel helmet and the gun barrel we cannot plant a tree and build a home.
– Israeli Army Commander Moshe Dayan
2002
"We enthusiastically chose to become a colonial society, ignoring international treaties, expropriating lands, transferring settlers from Israel to the occupied territories, engaging in theft and finding justification for all these activities. Passionately desiring to keep the occupied territories, we developed two judicial systems: one - progressive, liberal - in Israel; and the other - cruel, injurious - in the occupied territories. In effect, we established an apartheid regime in the occupied territories immediately following their capture. That oppressive regime exists to this day.
Michael Ben-Yair Article/book #: 3837
Title: The war's seventh day
A quote by CHOMSKY!!! LOLZ yeah he is the middle east expert
That guy is a considered a pariah in middle eastern scholarship. Nice one.
This is the royal decree and sentiments of two of the kings of Jordan.
"Palestine and Jordan are one..." said King Abdullah in 1948.
"The truth is that Jordan is Palestine and Palestine is Jordan," said King Hussein of Jordan, in 1981.
"Palestine is Jordan and Jordan is Palestine; there is only one land, with one history and one and the same fate," Prince Hassan of the Jordanian National Assembly was quoted as saying on February 2, 1970.
Accordingly, Abdul Hamid Sharif, Prime Minister of Jordan declared, in 1980, "The Palestinians and Jordanians do not belong to different nationalities. They hold the same Jordanian passports, are Arabs and have the same Jordanian culture."
In other words, Jordan is Palestine. Arab Palestine. There is absolutely no difference between Jordan and Palestine, nor between Jordanians and Palestinians (all actually Arabs).
This fact is also confirmed by other Arabs, Jordanians and 'Palestinans' who were either rulers or scholars.
"There should be a kind of linkage because Jordanians and Palestinians are considered by the PLO as one people," according to Farouk Kaddoumi, then head of the PLO Political Department, who gave the statement to Newsweek on March 14, 1977. Distinguished Arab-American Princeton University historian Philip Hitti testified before the Anglo-American Committee,
-- Yasser Arafat (1980)
"Peace for us means the destruction of Israel. We are preparing for an all-out war, a war which will last for generations."
Arafat in a Voice of Palestine broadcast, 1995 :
"The struggle will continue until all of Palestine is liberated."
Bashar Assad, M.D. Among the remarks in Dr. Assad's address to the Pope:
"They [the Jewish people] try to kill the principle of religions with the same mentality that they betrayed Jesus Christ and the same way they tried to betray and kill the prophet Muhammed."
"When I see a Jew before me, I kill him. If every Arab did this, it would be the end of the Jews
-- Mustafa Tlas, Minister of Defense
Arab analysts have discerned that the word "Pokemon" is Japanese for "I Am A Jew" and the popular children's game is a "Zionist Conspiracy". According to Saudi Sheikh Abdel Moneim Abu Zant:
"The Pokemon craze is a Jewish plot aimed at forcing our children to forgo their faith and values and to distract them from more important things such as scientific ambitions."
Wow, lies, out-of-context quotes and mistranslations? In the comments section of an article mentioning Israel? Who would've thunk?
"Israel's ambassador to the United States warned that Iran might unleash a wave of terrorist violence in the Middle East in retaliation for the tough new sanctions"
This would be Israel's dream come true. They can't wait to start something with Iran. Hopefully the Israelis can't draw the US into it
Oh yeah, violence and possible deaths in its all draftee army
is "Israel's dream come true." Piss off. Go serve in the military or send your sons and daughters off and then tell me its a dream come true.
IRAN SANCTIONS AND A WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST ?
I am beginning to wondwer whether Leon Panetta is the head, american C.I.A. or Israeli Mossad. His entire argument rests on two "IFS". If iran decides it wants to build a bomb it MAY take two years.... Really, Japan has more uranium than Iran and certainly the capacity to enrich to nuclear bomb grade IF ... The United States under President Ibama obviously is spoiling for a fight with Iran to prove her POWER! Israel provides the perfect alibi.. either the US attacks Iran or Israel will defend "her interests.
Now the Israeli ambassador has come up with his own absurd reasoning and the US and Western media are simply HMV! Iran has never attacked the US despite blatant american interference in her internal affairs since the 50s. Iran has never attacked Israel; the rhetorics notwithstanding; but the two are hell bent on starting another round of bloodshed to soothe the military industrila complex and israeli supporters in the Congress. well go ahead but the outcome will shock both of you and your expert advisors!
Does not the notion of Iran “inadvertently” provoking Israel to war imply that such a war would not be Iran's fault? Funny thing for an Israeli Ambassador to say in public.
"To the best of our knowledge, the U.S. is saying that our investigation fulfils the request for transparency and international participation." Whose “request” would that be, not the UN, not Turkey, not Brazil, not the EU…perhaps the Knesset?
"Why make an issue of something that's not even happening as far as we know?” Oren asks. Why indeed?
The killing of dozen unarmed civilian on the international water". I suppose this means Esther hasn't seen the videos of these armed civilians attacking the IDF soldiers sent to stop the ship. Or read about the soldier who sustained a serious knife wound. Or how they were sent on board with paint-ball rifles, with only hand guns as a contingency.
I blame Israel for this. Israel went in assuming that there would be no armed resistance as in previous encounters. Shame on Israel for not preparing for a violent civilian scenario.
Israel gave Gaza what they wanted and withdrew the occupation forces hoping for peace. Gaza and Hamas rewarded that good will gesture with over 6000 rockets.
How can we accept ignorant replica TAG and uninformed comments from the likes of Esther Haman? Unfortunately, news articles on Israel and Palestine are filled with similarly uneducated comments.
Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.
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