The Obama administration's new National Security Strategy, first
published on The Cable, contained
an explanation of how the United States is trying to manage China's rise by
persuading Beijing to take more of a leadership role in the world community.
But is that a fool's errand?
"We will encourage China to make choices that contribute to
peace, security, and prosperity as its influence rises," the strategy says,
while also making sure to note that the U.S. administration seeks a "candid"
and "pragmatic" relationship with China that also takes into account its military
modernization.
The idea that China can be convinced to take a leadership
role in the world commensurate with its rapidly rising diplomatic, economic,
and military power is not new. That's exactly the point Bush-era Deputy
Secretary of State Robert Zoellick
was making when he called for China to act like a "stakeholder" in the international
system. Elements of this thinking also factored into current Deputy Secretary Jim Steinberg's concept that U.S.-China
relations should be managed according to the principle of "strategic
reassurance."
But the Chinese response to evidence that North Korea sank a
South Korean naval ship, the Cheonan,
is giving China watchers in Washington pause. The consensus here is that China
is either unwilling, or at least unable at this stage, to prioritize the international
community's needs anywhere near its own interests. Whether it's on security, nuclear
nonproliferation, or climate change, China is not acting like a global leader
and maybe the U.S. needs to recognize that.
"We could be mistaken in thinking they could play that role,
maybe because they are not capable of doing it, or maybe they are just a big,
selfish power," said Victor Cha, a former
senior director for Asia at the National Security Council during the Bush
administration.
China's stance on the Cheonan
crisis -- that North Korea has not been proven responsible and therefore more
consultation is needed -- lacks basic credulity, said Cha. He's posted
slides from a
presentation South Korean Ambassador Han
Duk-soo gave at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) earlier
this week.
The slides, the result of an investigation that included
international experts, show three things: that it was an external explosion
that broke the ship in half, that the cause of the explosion was a torpedo, and
that the torpedo was made in North Korea. Cha believes it's implausible that
there's any other explanation for the ship breaking apart other than that North
Korea was responsible.
So why are the Chinese resisting that?
"The Chinese are still living in the Cold War. They feel an
allegiance to this communist country [North Korea]. They don't want anything to
happen that could possible lead to the regime falling apart. That's their basic
calculus," Cha said.
That flies in the face of China's famous pragmatism, which
should lead Chinese leaders to the realization that their future economic
interests lie much more strongly with South Korea, he added.
Charles W. Freeman
III, who holds the Freeman Chair (no relation) at CSIS, agreed that China
has not accepted that being a world power carries with it hefty
responsibilities.
"China is not at the point where they are ready to be a
global leader," Freeman said. "They really desperately tend to avoid any indices
of leadership. To tell them you've got to be a net contributor to global
welfare is very difficult."
He speculated that China is stalling on responding to the
North Korea crisis because there is no consensus within the Chinese Communist
Party on how to proceed. Hard-liners in Beijing are feeling their oats and
pushing the government to resist U.S. overtures, while more internationally
focused officials are losing ground, he said.
Overall, both Cha and Freeman said the Obama administration
is right to continue to press China to acknowledge and then live up to its
responsibilities. But each cautioned that expectations in the West have to be
realistic.
"The stakes are high, so making sure we manage China's rise
and China manages its rise with us, in order to avoid conflict, is pretty
important stuff," said Freeman.
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