Official: Civilian nuclear deal with Russia is tied to Iran sanctions

Posted By Josh Rogin Thursday, May 6, 2010 - 10:08 PM Share

If the Russians are willing to play ball on a new sanctions resolution for Iran, they stand a much better chance of getting a civilian nuclear deal with the United States, a State Department official testified Wednesday.

The administration began briefing lawmakers last week on what's known as the U.S.-Russia 123 agreement, in anticipation of resubmitting it to Congress at some undetermined time in the near future, acting Assistant Secretary of State Vann Van Diepen told a House subcommittee today.

"We [the State Department] are in standby mode in anticipation of the White House decision to re-submit the agreement to Congress," he told the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on terrorism, non-proliferation, and trade.

The Bush administration had transmitted the agreement to Congress in May of 2008, but then rescinded the treaty after the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war, saying, "Given the current environment, the time is not right for this agreement."

The environment in Congress wasn't much better. Congress has to pass legislation to block the agreement, or it will go into force. The House actually did pass such legislation, with 397 votes. A similar Senate bill had 71 co-sponsors.

And although neither bill became law, the bills would have barred the U.S. from signing a nuclear treaty with any country that's doing any even remotely related business with Iran.

That's where the linkage to the current UN Security Council debate on new sanctions for Iran comes in. The New York Times, also reporting today that the administration is getting ready to revive the agreement, quoted a leading scholar criticizing the administration for moving the agreement before Russia agrees to tough sanctions.

But according to Van Diepen, the Obama team is thinking about it the opposite way, holding out the agreement, which the Russians badly want, as a carrot to encourage Russia to get on board with tough sanctions first.

"The White House has publicly stated that the Russian government's cooperation on the Iranian nuclear issue will be a significant consideration in making this determination and this continues to be the case," Van Diepen said.

Prospective civilian nuclear agreements have been popping up all over the world since the U.S. and India signed one in 2007. Since Obama came into office, the UAE and Australia have gotten them, and other countries seeking 123 agreements with Washington include Pakistan, Jordan, Vietnam, Armenia, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan.

Of course, with Russia, the deal is tied up with the other nuclear agreement the two former adversaries just signed, the new START treaty. Congressional hearings on that started last week and Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller told an audience at Brookings Wednesday that Congress would receive a full package of materials "in early May."

Inside that package, GOP senators will be looking for details on the administration nuclear strategic modernization plan, what's being called the "1251 report" because that's the section of the defense bill that required it. If that report looks good to them, some GOP Senators could be more amenable to START ratification.

And before any 123 agreement with Russia is judged, the Congress will also be able to pour over a new National Intelligence Estimate on nukes, which Gottemoeller said the intelligence community is working on furiously and will be sent up to Capitol Hill "in a fairly short period of time."