Posted By Josh Rogin
Friday, April 23, 2010 - 3:59 PM
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When U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michele Sison met with Lebanese officials on Wednesday, she had a mission: She was there to urge Lebanon to help avoid a new outbreak of violence between Israel and the Shiite militant group Hezbollah.
Sison, an affable and well-liked career Foreign Service officer, was given the difficult task of both urging the Lebanese to do what they can to avoid an eruption of war and convincing them that U.S. and Israeli concerns about alleged Syrian arms transfers over the Lebanese border should be taken seriously.
Arab press reports cited anonymous sources as saying Sison showed Lebanese Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri photos of truck convoys, evidence of increasing and escalation weapons shipments to Hezbollah. More shockingly, the reports said that she told Lebanese officials the United States had stopped Israel from launching an imminent strike against the convoys. Neither of those details is true, according to multiple administration sources.
State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told The Cable that the idea American waived Israel off of a strike on Syrian weapons transfers is "totally false," but declined to describe the specifics of the meeting. Another U.S. official described the Arab press reports as "bullshit."
Two administration officials close to the issue, however, said that the meeting did in fact take place, but no photos were shown and the United States did not halt an imminent Israeli strike.
"The Israelis weren't ready to shoot anything. There was never a point where they said, ‘We are going to strike something,'" the official said, adding that at some point Israeli action could of course be a possibility -- albeit a disastrous one.
Regardless, the controversy surrounding Sison's meeting reflects the extremely high tensions in the region following reports of new Syrian weapons transfers, including possibly SCUD missiles, to Hezbollah -- tensions the Obama administration is trying to tamp down.
Sison's message was the same message the U.S. is sending to all the parties, which is, "A war now is not in anyone's interest," the official said.
The administration is still not clear that any SCUDs have been transferred, but there is an acknowledgement that Syrian weapons transfers are increasing in both quantity and quality.
"It's a deterrence game and each side is building up its deterrence capability," this official said, adding that as both the Israelis and Hezbollah prepare for war, the seriousness of any actual outbreak of fighting is keeping both sides from initiating battle -- for now.
"In a way, the deterrence is working," the source added, noting that the downside risk of the arms buildup is that any miscalculation that begins an open conflict would precipitate a large-scale war that whose consequences would be impossible to predict.
According to this official, who stressed that they were only conveying their personal analysis, not the overall administration position, Hezbollah is still seeking revenge for the 2008 Israeli assassination of its military leader Imad Mughniyeh, and sees some spectacular attack on Israel as a way to achieve that.
But Hezbollah, now accountable to the Lebanese people due to its role in the government, doesn't want to be seen as firing the first shot that could lead to devastating retaliation from Israel. So the group is trying to goad the Israelis into starting the conflict, the official believes.
The Israelis are aware they are being goaded, the official said, and are doing their best to resist while warning Washington that at some point violence might be unavoidable. "The Israelis know that once they strike, that's all the excuse that Hezbollah needs to wage a full-scale war," the official explained.
As for why Syria seems to be playing such an unhelpful role, "that's the million-dollar question," the official said. The Obama administration genuinely does not understand Syrian intentions and there are three basic theories within the administration as to why Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would continue to escalate arms shipments to Hezbollah despite U.S. warnings.
According to one school of thought, this is Assad's way of playing hardball with the Israelis in advance of Israeli-Syrian negotiations. No one wants to negotiate from a weak position, so he is amassing chits that he can bargain away later.
An opposing theory is that Assad has no interest in engaging with the Americans or negotiating with Israel at all. This line of thinking concludes that he is simply paving the way for eventual conflict with Israel.
The third, more nuanced analysis portrays Assad as a man in a bind. He has himself so tied up with Iran and Hezbollah that perhaps he can't disengage as easily as those in the West think he can. Also, Assad has always been a gambler and may have simply become entangled in his own web of deals with so many competing interests.
"We do not understand Syrian intentions. No one does, and until we get to that question we can never get to the root of the problem," the official said. "Until then it's all damage control."
Meanwhile, the administration is trying to explain to the Syrians how foolish the weapons transfers are, if they are really happening, while telling the Israelis to be patient and arguing that the only beneficiary of a new Israeli-Hezbollah war would be Iran, which would seize upon a new conflict to deflect international pressure over its nuclear program.
And what about Hariri, who said the SCUD allegations were "reminiscent of the weapons of mass destruction allegations against Saddam Hussein" and "a pretext for threatening my country"?
"Hariri is terrified that another war is going to break his country apart and if that means denying the weapons transfers or whatever, he's going to do it," our official speculated. "He's desperately trying to save his country from utter decimation."
EXPLORE:ARAB WORLD, MIDDLE EAST, DIPLOMACY, IRAN, ISRAEL/PALESTINE, LEBANON, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, STATE DEPARTMENT, SYRIA 
Seriously, Josh, maybe you and your colleagues at the FP could stop citing the JPost, trashy Kuwaiti tabloids, Now Lebanon (a creature of a US-based anti-Syrian lobbying group), the parade of horribles from WINEP in your analysis of Syria-Lebanon-Israel-US issues. Neutral, well-informed observers, exist, you know. It's not that hard.
Finally, you might ask your DOS sources why they fund groups whose 'affiliates' are the sources/amplifiers of these lame "media reports." I can't imagine Feltman enjoys wasting two weeks of his time just cause his 'friends' in the Levant cannot stay on the leash.
Seriously, a little cynicism is in order -- it's kind of a 'journalist' thing, you know, otherwise you just get played, again and again and again.
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Just facts:
armed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nassrallah is the official representative of iran supreme leader Khemeinie in lebanon. Khemenie divine orders are religious orders for the "party of GOD". The problem is that khamenie takes political orders not only religious. even Shiites in Tehran opposes his orders are called "Moujahid against God"
meanwhile for more than 14 years Syria has been free space for Iran. clever Iranian invaded Syria`s regime since they can't invade Syriac`s Sunni majority. Many people is trying to ignore 14 years of Iranian free hand inside Syria. Assad in an interview on March 22 with Hezbollah TV, in reply to a question about Iranian regional influence seen as threat to National security, Assad said he do not consider Iranian interference a threat.
however in Lebanon where Iranian militia brought down the 1st elected government & after 2nd election the majority due to Iran-Hezbollah weapon were forced to form what is called a "unity" instead of a majority gov.. this Gov. is trying to solve its problem through UN resolutions that call on Israel to withdraw & on Hezbollah to disarm so lebanon will not be used a free land for regional desput.
Hezbollah official Ghalib Abou Zaynab yesterday confirmed Heabollah has missiles more powerful than scud another
a day earlier, Syrian loyalist Wiiam Wahab from Syria said Hezbollah has more then scud
Syria if not delivering scud sure Syria delivering another missiles.
In conclusion, Iran is using its regional Tools "Bashar Al assad & Hassan Nassrallah" to breakdown the elected Lebanese government supported by the west & moderate Arab countries.
Hezbollah official “Mousawi” demands Lebanese Prime Minister to support Hezbollah’s weapon despite a United Nations resolutions calling for Hezbollah disarmament.
using double policy Syria denies reports of supporting Hezbollah to ease pressure. while Hezbollah supports Syria’s allegation to divert pressure from Syria to Lebanon gov.
Pro Syrian-Iranian groups launch a campaign against US support for Lebanon.
the nuclear Persian empire is growing so fast...
Go Medes & Assyria - God is with you!
God is with Medes (ancient Iran) and Assyria on this one - it is written in the book of Isaiah @ 13:17 "I am stirring up against them the Medes, who think nothing of silver and take no delight in gold."
Iran will destroy the Babylonian economy of the US and EU!
And in Isaiah 10:5-6 "Woe to Assyria! My rod in anger, my staff in wrath. Against an impious nation I send him and against a people under my wrath I order him to seize plunder, carry off loot, and tread them down like the mud of the streets."
Assyrian nations will destroy the demonic cult of false Jews and reigning Freemasons who call themselves 'Israel', but seek only to rebuild the Temple of Solomon to place the Antichrist on the Throne.
But, Assyria will be punished for pride in victory - Isaiah 10:12-13 "[But when the Lord has brought to an end all his work on Mount Zion and in Jerusalem, I will punish the utterance of the king of Assyria's proud heart, and the boastfulness of his haughty eyes. For he says: By my own power I have done it, and by my wisdom, for I am shrewd."
Damascus will be destroyed.
But OBVOUSLY the so-called Jews DON'T read their prophets. In fact, they stoned them all and killed their Messiah - so that's not surprising.
God will destroy the cult of Satanic Freemasonry that rules in the false 'Israel', using Medes and Assyria. May God bless them (He already has).
The 'remnant of Israel' that will return are the Christians; followers of the Holy One of Israel and those 'who seek refuge in the name of the Lord', Jesus Christ - the REAL Christians, not the Protestant-Freemasonry cults that fill America and England!
Keep living your life in a book that is hundreds of years old. That is your right, I suppose. However, dont expect anybody else to respect this nonsense.
Syria is sending scuds to Hezbollah?
no way!
Did you know that the US is sending $3bllion/per year to Israel in arms?
Balance sucks, huh?
“The Obama administration genuinely does not understand Syrian intentions”. This suggests a belief in the existence of some clearly defined short-term Syrian objective. Syria would like its Golan Heights returned but as there is no direct route to that objective it is obliged constantly to manoeuvre, as are the Palestinians. This is what makes it so difficult to get people to sit down together; they are never in exactly the same place today as they were yesterday. The US is much the same, forever nudging the virtual goalposts this way and that. The only entity in or associated with the Middle East that has anything like clear short-term objectives is Israel and it pursues them daily.
Mr. Thomas
you seem confused between facts & fantasises. my conclusion is based on just facts. please ask which part in my comment you think its fantasises and i would post a reference.
I quoted Hezbollah official & a Syrian loyalist from Syria both are confirming Hezbollah has more lethal weapon than Scud.
you questioned Hezbollah loyalty to Iran, simply check Hezbollah website & see whom they list as the highest leader.
you call these facts fantasies!! in addition & you said ``Mossad does not know``; Although US official confirmed they are still reviewing ""reports"", still for your fantasies to make sense, you have to also prove that Hezbollah & Assad are working for Mossad!! because i simply quoted them & listed Nassrallah official tittle.
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"Facts" & Syria double-face policy
i really like this article because it is based on realistic argument that lebanon elected majority government supported by united state, the international community and moderate arab countries, is trying to implement UN resolutions to secure a sovereign & democratic Lebanon, pushing for Israel withdrawal from Lebanese territories according to international boundaries, stop Syrian interference in Lebanon & disarm all armed militia. These are the necessary steps to make Lebanon a stable country and make lebanon part of the international peace effort to solve the regional conflicts instead of keeping lebanon a land for radical regimes Iran & Syria to wage wars through Iran terrorist militia "hezbollah" or the Syrian Palestinian terrorist groups in Northern Lebanon.
However let us try to make comments as informative as the article and stick to facts only instead of just posting accusations such as "fantasies" or to pre-judge "reports" before seeing them yet ignore facts such as Hezbollah officials own quotes. some of these comments sounds as they know about Hezbollah more than its officials...
Meanwhile please allow me to share with you a recent example out of many where official is confirming Syria support hezbollah & that "hezbollah has the needed weapon" just yesterday a Syrian loyalist, the head of the Syrian social party "Herdan", during visit to Syrian, confirmed Syria is supporting and arming hezbollah and that hezbollah now has all needed weapon. Also yesterday A source close to decision-makers in Damascus was quoted by Kuwaiti newspaper al-Rai on Saturday as saying that "If Israel uses unconventional weapons, we'll respond in a similar fashion."
Syria double-face policy is now used by Iran to by time until the Iranian nuclear empire say "nuclear checkmate"
you accept hezbollah officials statements as facts
nor Syrian loyalists speaking from syria
nor reports
what about this? :)
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said:
"Syria and Iran are providing Hezbollah with rockets and missiles of ever-increasing capability,"
"And we're at a point now, where Hezbollah has far more rockets and missiles than most governments in the world, and this is obviously destabilizing for the whole region and we're watching it very carefully."
John Hudson reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.
May/June 2013
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