If the Kyrgyz opposition is able to maintain control after toppling the
government, the Pentagon and State Department may have to renegotiate the
U.S.-Kyrgyz agreement on a crucial U.S. air base there, experts warn.
It's only been a few months since the now-deposed Kyrgyz president,
Kurmanbak Bakiyev, signed a new deal
upping the rent on the Air Force Transit Center at Manas, which the U.S.
depends on for critical supplies en route to Afghanistan.
Last February, there was a
vote in the Kyrgyz parliament to end the arrangement, egged on by a Russia
wary of the growing U.S. military presence in its near abroad. The man who led
the opposition to the base in the legislature was former parliamentary speaker
and opposition leader Omurbek Tekebaev,
who now seems to be in control of the country, after being arrested and then
released on Wednesday.
"We have to probably renegotiate the Manas basing agreement,
because it was the opposition that pressured Bakiyev into renegotiating in the
first place," said Alexandros Petersen,
senior fellow with the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council. "The leading
opposition figures are not anti-American or more pro-Russian than anyone
else in Kyrgyzstan, but because they led the drive to raise the rents they
might have to reopen negotiations for political reasons."
And where there is a negotiation in Central Asia, there is a
U.S.-Russia angle to worry about as well.
"This could be a relatively friendly negotiation, but the
Russians could very well take the opportunity to meddle again," Petersen said.
Although Russia would have an interest in getting back at
Bakiyev for finally striking a deal with the U.S., Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin has condemned the violence and denied any Russian role in today's events.
Meanwhile, it's still "business as usual" at Manas,
according to a U.S. military spokesman.
"As of right now the air base is still open, the unrest has
not impact operations on the base," said Shawn
Turner, Pentagon public affairs officer. "It's getting a little tense."
Turner said he had no information that Bakiyev, who took
over from Askar Akayev during the 2005
"Tulip Revolution," was holing up at the U.S. base, despite some rumors
in the capital city of Bishkek to that effect.
"Folks at Manas tell us that business as usual and if he was
there, that would be something that we would be aware of," Turner said.
Petersen said he was hearing Bakiyev has taken refuge in his
home turf of Osh, a
city in southern Kyrgyzstan where he still has a power base. If he hasn't
actually left the country, that could indicate the power struggle isn't over,
he added.
The broader implication for the international community is
the realization that the era of popular revolutions in Eurasia toppling
unpopular government is still ongoing, and even democratic governments that don't
live up to their ideals are vulnerable.
Although this latest unrest was sparked by the government's decision
to raise utility prices by 200 percent, Bakiyev has been moving toward cronyism
and corruption for some time, Petersen said.
"Color revolutions are not dead in this part of the world,"
he said, noting that what's going on in Kyrgyzstan has implications for Ukraine
and Georgia. "If a color revolution goes authoritarian, you can have another
revolution right on top of it."
I find it highly unlikely that the government (if it survives more than six months) will renegotiate. They need recognition from the outside powers to help solidify their position.
Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.
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