President Obama's delay
of his trip to Indonesia and Australia could be a boost to those in the
administration who want to see a refocus on foreign policy and away from
domestic politics, experts tell The Cable.
On the long flight to Asia, the virtual West Wing aboard Air
Force One will surely include top White House political types who will be
dealing with the fallout of a probable health-care vote. But once the White House
staff gets out of the Beltway and away from pesky lawmakers and reporters,
that's when the policy wonks usually try to grab the president's valuable
attention.
"The good thing about these long flights is that they
advantage the NSC and State Department staffers because they get a lot of face
time with the president," said Michael
Green, who was senior Asia director on the National Security Council and
traveled with then President George W. Bush
on several Asia trips. Green said foreign-policy initiatives often follow
such a trip because the president has a chance to really dig in with the subject-matter
experts.
"When you do these trips you just have a lot more ability to
get away from the nickel-and-dime stuff. It's all policy time," said Victor Cha, who succeeded Green at the
NSC. Both Green and Cha are now associated with the Center
for Strategic and International Studies.
The actually policy deliverables from Obama's Asia trip are
expected to be light. In Indonesia, where Obama spent a few years
as a boy, the president will likely sign a new U.S.-Indonesia comprehensive
agreement that seeks to elevate the already complex cooperation going on
between the two countries without adding a whole lot of new concrete aspects to
that cooperation.
"It is assumed they will formally announce the partnership
between the two countries. The partnership needs an endorsement from the two
leaders," said former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia Ed Masters.
"For various reasons, it was in both countries' interest to
keep the relationship relatively low key, so this will be a larger public
acknowledgment," said William Wise
of the Johns Hopkins University School of
Advanced International Studies.
In Australia, leaders there will be pressing Obama to move
faster on trade policy. For Australia, the American lack of movement on free trade
right now is deeply problematic, said Green. But Obama needs Congress to move
forward his trade agenda and there is little expectation he will use whatever
little political capital he has left with lawmakers on trade before the fall midterm
elections.
Asian threats to create new trade organizations that don't
include the United States are still in the formative stage, giving Obama wiggle
room to keep kicking the trade issue down the road.
"The president can probably let his wheels spin on this for
a year or so," said Green.
One lingering question is whether the delay of the trip will
actually have any detrimental effect on the visit. Most experts say that's
unlikely.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia Paul Wolfowitz told The Cable
that while there will certainly be some disappointment that the trip was
delayed and Obama's family won't join, overall Indonesia is simply thrilled to
have Obama visit and will forgive him for changing the schedule.
"I think it's difficult to exaggerate how excited
Indonesians must be about the prospects of a presidential visit," he said,
adding, "Once Obama gets there, they're going to forget all about the
postponement."
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