Being secretary of state is a grueling job; you're on the
road most weeks, and often you get a lot less say in your country's foreign
policy than you'd like. No wonder running the show in Foggy Bottom tends to be
a four-year gig. So now that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has
said she can't imagine herself serving another four years after 2012, the
obvious question becomes: Who might replace her?
Foreign-policy hands say the choice will depend on what kind
of image President Obama wants to project, and what's going on in the world at the time.
"Obama's situation and the state of American foreign policy is
extraordinarily fluid right now," said the Council on Foreign Relations' Walter Russell Mead. "His choice will
depend on how he wants to engage the world: to kill them with kindness or to
take a more aggressive approach."
Here is an initial short list, compiled with help from Cable readers and experts:
Early frontrunner:
John Kerry
Kerry has been campaigning for the job since before Obama's election.
He looked eminently diplomatic in convincing Afghan President Hamid Karzai to agree to a new election.
And his steady stewardship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee seems to
have erased doubts about his ability to head an organization. He's got international profile and his
Massachusetts seat is (relatively?) safe.
Gray eminence: Richard Lugar
Lugar is well-respected on both sides of the aisle, has
strong nonproliferation credentials, deep expertise on international issues,
and has been a staunch defender of the State Department bureaucracy. His
appointment would signal Obama's continued commitment to having a bipartisan
cabinet. The question will be: As an 80-year-old man in 2012, has he got the
vigor to do it?
Waiting in the wings:
Jim Steinberg
Steinberg is said to be somewhat disappointed at not getting
a higher posting in the first round of the Obama appointments, but he's been
amazingly active as deputy secretary of state, injecting himself into almost
every issue and taking on Asia as his personal policy domain. He knows the
building, which would make for a smooth transition. His reported clashes within
the department and throughout the interagency would be his only drawback.
Already in the
cabinet: Susan Rice
Rice spends more time in Washington than most of her U.N. ambassador
predecessors. With full cabinet rank, she's not shy in playing a role in
foreign policy so far, and she benefits from her close personal relationship
with Obama. Her appointment would signal a redoubling of the effort toward
engagement and international diplomacy. But if times are tough and wars are
raging, her chances might be slimmer.
A bridge too far: Richard Holbrooke/George Mitchell
Either of these senior envoys would have seemed like a
logical successor to Clinton a year ago. Both men are grand poobahs of the foreign
policy establishment, but their respective efforts to solve major international
problems have thus far met with limited success. If either the situations in
Afghanistan or the Middle East were to vastly improve between now and 2012, however,
their stock would go straight up.
Always the bridesmaid:
Chuck Hagel
A media darling, Hagel's name is always floated when one of
these opportunities come up. Fiercely independent and blunt, his style never
seemed to match up with the academic intellectualism of Obama. What's more, he
reportedly turned down high-level ambassadorships because he didn't want to
travel, so it's doubtful he would be in serious consideration.
Dark horse: Gen. David
Petraeus
When Petraeus's term as head of Central Command winds down,
there will be nationwide speculation about his next role. If the international
atmosphere is one of danger and uncertainty, Petraeus's stature could help him overcome
concerns about having a military man be the face of American foreign policy.
Obama has also shown a willingness to co-opt potential presidential rivals, and
the general has been regularly mooted as a Republican contender in 2012 --
notwithstanding his vigorous disavowals of any political ambitions.
JOEL SAGET/AFP/Getty Images
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