Can the intel community defuse India-Pakistan tensions?

Posted By Laura Rozen Monday, February 16, 2009 - 8:18 PM Share

The CIA played a back-channel role in serving as an arbiter and vehicle for intelligence sharing in order to ease tensions between India and Pakistan after the Mumbai attacks, the Washington Post reports today. "In the aftermath of the Mumbai terrorist attacks, the CIA orchestrated back-channel intelligence exchanges between India and Pakistan, allowing the two former enemies to quietly share highly sensitive evidence while the Americans served as neutral arbiters, according to U.S. and foreign government sources familiar with the arrangement," the paper writes.

Former U.S. intelligence sources concerned about the potential for the situation to escalate had brought the channel to the attention of The Cable a few weeks ago. A few days before Christmas, they said, the United States sent then Director of National  Intelligence Michael McConnell and veteran CIA analyst Charlie Allen, who at the time was a top DHS intelligence official, to India. Allen and McConnell were there to talk about Mumbai. Both have since retired and could not be immediately reached.

Also on the trip to India, another U.S. government official said on condition of anonymity, was Michael Leiter, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center. "It was a quick in and out trip," the US official said, of the previously undisclosed visit of the three intelligence officials to India. "They got in on a Sunday [Dec. 21], and were out on Tuesday morning," Dec. 23. McConnell had previously visited India last June, the official said.

But the former intelligence officers said the person the United States should be sending to defuse a potential India-Pakistani conflict is Defense Secretary Robert Gates. "The only guy in this administration they are likely to listen to is Gates," one former U.S. intelligence official said. "He's done this twice before." Gates, who was then deputy national security advisor for the first President Bush, was sent to "talk the Indians and Pakistanis out of war" in both 1988 and 1990, the former official, who had been among those involved in briefing Gates at the time, said.

The former official said the message Gates told India is, "If you go to war with Pakistan, you'll win. But your industrial infrastructure will be destroyed." And the message Gates told Pakistan is, "If you go to war with India, you'll lose. And at the end, you will not have a country."

"Bob Gates was the cool hand in keeping the Indians and the Pakistanis from going to war during Brass Tacks (Indian military exercise) in 1987," another former U.S. intelligence officer said, referring to when Gates was then serving as acting Director of Central Intelligence. "It was very tense."

"They are constantly shooting at one another along the line of control," the first former intelligence official said. "These little skirmishes risk getting out of hand. Both [India and Pakistan] feel they are great players at brinkmanship. But in fact they are terrible at it. They lose control very quickly. They don't know where their people are and what they are doing."

The former intelligence official strongly supported the regional approach to Afghanistan suggested by US special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke. "Afghanistan is a classic power vacuum," the former official said. "Neighbors see it as point of instability to guarantee their own stability or an opportunity to score points."

While the U.S. media has frequently reported on Pakistani ties to jihadi elements launching attacks in Afghanistan, it has less often mentioned that India supports insurgent forces attacking Pakistan, the former intelligence official said. "The Indians are up to their necks in supporting the Taliban against the Pakistani government in Afghanistan and Pakistan," the former intelligence official who served in both countries said. "The same anti-Pakistani forces in Afghanistan also shooting at American soldiers are getting support from India. India should close its diplomatic establishments in Afghanistan and get the Christ out of there."

"None of this is ever one-sided," he added. "That is why it was so devastating and we were so let down" when India got taken out of Holbrooke's official brief.

Holbrooke flew to India Sunday night after visits to Pakistan and Afghanistan. "Mr. Holbrooke ... said he was shocked by the problems he saw in the country [Pakistan], which he last visited a year ago," the New York Times reports. "He said he was especially concerned that the Swat Valley, a onetime ski resort about 100 miles from Islamabad, had been seized by Taliban guerrillas, who blow up schools, assassinate police officers and beat -- or behead -- those who do not adhere to their strict version of Islam." On Sunday, the paper also reports, the Taliban declared a 10 day cease-fire with Pakistani forces in Swat valley.

The Post report, sourced initially to unnamed Pakistani officials, could be interpreted as an effort by Pakistan to prevent Indian actions against the country that some U.S. military analysts predict are likely before Indian elections this spring.

"The Indians are almost certainly going to do something before [their] elections," said AEI military analyst Thomas Donnelly. "They will strike camps in Pakistan. They are really pissed about the incompetence of the response to the [Mumbai] attacks.  .... It doesn't look like the Pakistanis are willing to or even can do anything that will satisfy the Indians. I would really be surprised if something doesn't happen, unless that changes. They got an election coming up in March or April. It will be an interesting test for the United States."

A spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said it would have no comment on travel taken by the DNI.

UPDATE: A Washington South Asia expert, among others, wrote to dispute the allegation made by a former U.S. intelligence official cited in the piece that India is aiding the Taliban, although he said such support may be going to other anti-Pakistan insurgent groups.  "It doesn't square with my observations/sources, even though lots of Pakistanis will say it is true," one said. "The Indians have - by many accounts - had a longstanding connection with Baluch nationalists/separatists in Pakistan, but these are not Taliban and they aren't active in Afghanistan fighting against US/NATO forces. So yes, India gives Pakistan grief (as Pakistan has in India), but I've seen no evidence that it comes from Pakistani or Afghan Taliban.

"As for the consulates, that's a regular refrain from Pakistani government and military," the expert added, "but there's very little US evidence to support the claims of major Indian activity in these locations, which appear to be minor operations with rather few personnel." The former U.S. intelligence officer who made the allegation said that U.S. policymakers do not require the U.S. government to collect intelligence on the issue.

EXPLORE:SOUTH ASIA, BUSH ADMINISTRATION, INDIA, INTELLIGENCE, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, PAKISTAN
 

KXB

3:03 PM ET

February 17, 2009

Oh, please

OK - so the unnamed source says that India is supporting Taliban elements that are trying to destabilize both Pakistan and Afghanistan? Seems like someone has been spending too much time in Afghan poppy fields. India is building the Afghan Parliament building, training its civil servants, building its cellphone networks, and even constructing roads that will allow bypass Pakistan in international trade. So, what does India have to gain by destabilizing Karzai? The man probably still has a house in New Delhi where he lived for a number of years.

As for the charge that India is trying to destabilizing Pakistan, Islamabad is doing a fine job on its own in that regard, they don't need any outside help. Really, why would India want an Islamist state armed with nukes right next door? The military-dominated Pakistan is a headache enough.

 

THETRUTH1980

5:50 PM ET

February 17, 2009

Its obvious the Indians are

Its obvious the Indians are supporting Taliban.

Just a few days ago, Taliban threatened to fight anti-india groups inside Pakistan, including the group blamed by India for Mumbai attacks.

It'll be in US best interst to get Indians out of Afghanistan, that's the only way Pakistan will become most concentrated on War On Terror and that's the only way we are going to win the War on Terror.

India hates Pakistan more than anything, they would love to destabilize Pakistan. Please learn history of South Asia.

 

RUDRADEV

7:42 PM ET

February 17, 2009

What a laugh

The Taliban are, and have always been a Pakistani creation controlled by the Pakistan army as an instrument to subvert Afghan sovereignty. They aided, abetted, and sheltered the Pakistani terrorists who hijacked the Indian Airlines jet IC814 to Kandahar in 1999. One would have to be daft to buy the drivel being peddled by "an unnamed intelligence official" (and dutifully reproduced without attribution by Laura Rozen) that India is supporting the very same terrorists who perpetrated this atrocity.

India has over 3,000 engineers, architects, and construction workers in Afghanistan helping to build roads, schools, and other infrastructure that the Afghan people are in desperate need of. Unlike Pakistan, which exports only terrorists to Afghanistan, India has stepped up to the tasks of nation-building that will ultimately develop a strong, stable and terrorist-free Afghanistan. This is the only way for Afghanistan to assume its rightful place in the comity of responsible nations, and the only way in which the global war on Islamist terror can be brought to a successful conclusion. Anyone who demands that India should curtail its activities in Afghanistan is a spokesperson for Pakistani terrorists; no more and no less.

 

JMS180

7:28 PM ET

February 18, 2009

India comments

Ms. Rozen,

I applaud you for posting the "update" but am disappointed by the original assertion. Fingering India as a supporter of the Taliban is a claim as bold as it is unsupportable by evidence. I have to question the veracity of this "former intelligence official" (might not be a bad idea to lose his number) and question your professional judgment for nonchalantly posting such a provocative claim on such shaky ground. But again, bravo for making the necessary correction.

 

SLUMDOG

10:06 AM ET

February 19, 2009

Movie: Taliban Starring: "India" as the Angel

As long as the journal keeps saying Pakistan is behind all the false war going on inside its own territory, all the Indian readers will agree. As soon as you guys report India as the culprit, people will come up with all sorts of excuses.

I would like to ask all those who have written in India's favour just a few questions:

1. Where was India after Afghanistan was devastated by the Soviet Union's aggression in the region?
2. How come India has developed a sudden interest in "rebuilding" Afghanistan?
3. So India is doing Welfare work in Afghanistan out of humanity? --- favouring a grief and hunger striken people of Afghanistan - How decent of India to be such a nice democracy! Where its own people die of hunger every day. Where the poor/minorities are suppressed in the presence of their Police force!

Good job India. India deserves accolades for the "re-construction" projects its financing in Afghanistan with its "Civil Engineers" and volunteers!

The Cable has once again proved itself to be neutral.
Never in history has "any" war been one-sided. Besides, according to the Indians, Pakistan itself is behind the war in its NWFProvince - Sometimes Indian media and people are so biased they ignore common sense! I'm really surprised!

 

WELL DONE

2:19 PM ET

February 19, 2009

Silly disaprovel

All the disapprovel on this article are for me very silly.the persons who made such false claims cannot have an any kind of information that what is happen in Afghanistan and what is happen in India also.Can they ans me that what is the purpose of supply the weapons to Fazal ullah (the leader of TTP).and gave the facilty of transport to Balach Marri(leader of BLA) is of what purpose?and can you ever see the oath ceremony of "shiv sena" where they take oath on ;to destroy the Pakistan and make 40 pieces of Pakistan.and India is not only want to destabalize Pakistan but also other neibouring countries such as Srilanka,Nepal,Bhutan,Bangladesh,Myanmar and also want to destablize China by the issue of Tibet.So i request to Ms.Laura Rozen to plz write on these issues.

 

PRIMATE

8:28 PM ET

February 19, 2009

Intelligence?

The anonymous commenter's analysis defies logic. This intelligence officer would have us believe that, India is supporting the Taliban against the Pakistani army, right? Now, what could go wrong with that?
Oh yes, the Taliban could prevail and destabilize Pakistan, sending millions upon millions of [Sunni] Muslim refugees into India. What Hindu majority nation wouldn't salivate at that possibility? Or better yet, the Taliban could get a hold of some nukes and then, guess which major country in the neighborhood would see a sudden flight of capital and businesses? Not to mention, mass panic, riots and general instability.
Oh, I forgot to mention, the same Taliban are also trying to overthrow Karzai, India's best friend in Kabul. Talk about the "tangled web".

Seriously, given the intelligence of your anonymous intelligence source, is it any wonder that the ISI and the Pakistani military is able to steal billions of dollars from the American tax payers without anybody the wiser.

 

DEC

5:00 AM ET

February 20, 2009

Felix

I think the CIA run into the AF/Pak war was too obvious with the smart power, Harvards, Green Berets and PC. It's too like Kennedy and Obama. The CIA's focus on Pakistan was what gave them away. The India bombing would be CIA focusing on Pakistan. They aren't doing what they're told and a coup is obviously wanted; Google sure can pay Pelosi when she asks. So, Russia should stop shooting down predators and satellites asserting air space? They made too many friends. Pakistan has learned deals with CIA are always a mistake.

Hilly is covering the CIA in the Af/Pak war with her Indonesia Obama 'likes it' trip. We should ask her close friend Plame what she thinks. She has that Af/Pak profile like some of her Harvard pals.

 

JINISHANS

3:53 AM ET

February 23, 2009

Reply to "Slumdog"

You've proved by naming yourself as Slumdog though you're a pakistani by asking those questions, but the film name you've given as your name got several Orcars today.

 

John Hudson reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.

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