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Dinner with Secretary Clinton: Afghanistan on the menu
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will host selected South Asia hands at a dinner tonight (Tuesday) on the topic of Afghanistan at the Secretary's official dining room on the eighth floor of Foggy Bottom, The Cable has learned. About 10 people were invited to the dinner, said one person informed about it (but not going), on condition of anonymity. "Some widely known experts, others less well-known but more likely to have jobs in the new team," the source said.
Clinton's Afghan dinner would appear to signal that the secretary of state intends to be a key player in setting the Obama administration's policy toward Afghanistan -- along with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, CENTCOM commander Gen. David Petraeus, and national security advisor James L. Jones -- and it follows the appointment of former Amb. Richard Holbrooke as the State Department's South Asia envoy.
Sources told The Cable that among those invited are J. Alexander Thier, of the U.S. Institute of Peace, and Jonah Blank, a South Asia advisor with the Senate Foreign Relations committee. Neither would comment. Both advised the Obama campaign on South Asia issues. Blank recently accompanied Vice President Joseph Biden on a trip to the region (Biden, incidentally, had breakfast with Clinton this morning, according to his official schedule). Thier is the editor of a recent USIP report, "The Future of Afghanistan," and previously served as a member of an Afghanistan study group led by national security advisor Jones.
The dinner comes as Holbrooke has been working this week out of the transition's offices on the State Department's first floor, preparing for his mission and interviewing possible staff. The Cable has previously reported that Vali Nasr, the Fletcher professor and Mideast and South Asia expert, has agreed to serve as a senior advisor to Holbrooke. New York University professor Barnett Rubin declined to comment on what some sources indicate, that he may serve as an informal advisor to Holbrooke. Nor would he say if he's going to tonight's dinner.
It's still unclear who will serve as assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, and who will take deputy roles. The outgoing deputy assistant secretary for India, Evan Feigenbaum, is slated to join the Council on Foreign Relations next month. Two career Foreign Service officers, Nancy Powell and Bob Blake, along with the current U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Ann Patterson, are discussed as possible assistant secretaries, along with some of those invited to tonight's dinner, as possible appointees for assistant secretary or DAS slots. Former Assistant Secretary of State Karl Inderfurth, who also advised the Obama campaign on South Asia, is also mentioned as being in the mix for a South Asia position, possibly as U.S. ambassador to India. He didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. The New York Times recently reported that ret. Army Lt. Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry, the former top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has been tapped as U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan.
At the NSC, the Afghanistan portfolio seems slated to remain for now under the direction of Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, George W. Bush's holdover "war czar," whose staff of seconded CIA, DoD, and other federal agency employees are mostly staying in place for now. A senior director on South Asia may be appointed at a later point. Bruce Riedel, the veteran CIA and NSC official who served as the senior lead on the team advising the Obama campaign on South Asia, has previously told The Cable he expects to stay at the Brookings Institution. But it's possible he could play an advisory role, sources say.
Meantime, observers note similarities between the recommendations in a new Afghanistan report (pdf) by counterinsurgency and security experts at the Center for a New American Security, and Politico's description today of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's recommendation to President Obama to scale back U.S. ambitions in Afghanistan. Under the revised aims reportedly proposed by the classified JCS report, and by the unclassified CNAS briefing paper, the reduced objectives would be to prevent the country from being a safe haven for al Qaeda and the Taliban and to ensure regional stability, rather than try to build a centralized, democratic state.
One of the co-authors of the CNAS report, ret. Lt. Col. John Nagl, said he had no plans to go to dinner tonight with Secretary Clinton. Rather, he said, he would be teaching about Afghanistan at Georgetown.
Correction: Douglas Lute is an actively serving lieutenant general, and not, as previously reported, a retired general.
Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images
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Josh Rogin reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for The Cable.
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From the list of names--this is not change but more of the same
Alex Thier - An energetic lawyer who has his heart is in the right place. But does "any one know his father?" as the Afghans or Pakistanis would ask.
Jonah Blank-A staffer for Biden for a long time. Author of a number of books, a couple tour guide, comic types, on South Asia -- good stuff. Had more of a focus on India than Afghanistan. Married to a Nepali so he has more than a passing interest in Nepal.
Richard Holbrooke--He just recently hired an Iranian for the Afg-Pak problem. Very stupid move.
The usual gang of academics (Barnett Rubin, Ahmed Rashid, etc) that circulate from administration to administration are good but should be handled with care. They don't know more than State/INR, Pentagon's J-5 Council of Colonels, DIA Afg-Pak Analytical Cells, and the Agency's NESA and targeting analysts.
Holbrooke should reach out beyond this group -- to people like experienced veterans of the Afghan-Pakistan affairs with a background in government and academic like Rich Smyth (at the U.S. Army War College), retired Ambassador Peter Tomsen (Special Envoy to the Afghan Resistance, who knows all of the big players in Afghanistan), Mir Hekmat Sadat (an Afghan-American scholar and practioner at State Dept and one of the War Colleges), Nancy Dupree (she's in Kabul and if you don't know her then you are should not be working the Afghan portfolio--try Uganda), Mike Metrinko (at the US Army War College, he was the political afffairs brain of the US Embassy in Kabul and actually opened up the embassy after a 20 year hiatus), and Ambassador Mike Malinowski (served DCM to Afghanistan during the late 1970s and also as General Consul in Peshawar and knows all of the top and middle players in Pakistan, India and most importantly Afghanistan).
dinner with the secretary
As it happens, I'm not going to dinner with Sec Clinton either. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford
Professor Vali is consideed to be an authority on Shia Brand of
Professor Vali is consideed to be an authority on Shia Brand of Islam and, these days, a strong advocate of US-Iran talk. To that end, he might be able to play a positive role. However, when it comes to Afghanistan and Pakistan (both being predominantly Sunni) it is doubtful whether his expertise will be of any good use.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have a dispute over the land of the Pashtuns that were annexed to Pakistan during the creation of the later by Imperial Britain after world war II.
On the other hand, Afghanistan (a Sunni country)and Iran (a Shia state) have never enjoyed good neighborly relations. Even before Islam, the two countries, being historically separate cultural and political entities in the region, were often at war with each other; Iran trying to dominate while Afghanistan resisting the domination. This is a sad reality that is embedded in the long history of the region which most western scholars normally don't realize.
The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the national resistance of the Afghans for independence resulted in a complete devastation of the country. The internal struggle of resistance forces for political power and authority in the wake of the Soviet withdrawal further weakened the country. The so-called war on terror has caused more blood shed and human sufferings in this unfortunate country.
As a result of these circumstances, both Pakistan and Iran acquired a golden opportunity to compete with each other over Afghanistan (a failed state) for cultural and political influence and possible territorial gains.
Afghans are extreme freedom lovers and their long history is a witness to their fierce resistance and sacrifice for freedom and independence- a value that America cherishes most. A true understanding of the Afghan character and culture reveals that the Afghans are mostly democratic by nature and like to live in a democratic socio-political environment. Any diplomatic or political arrangement that aims at a negotiable solution, as an alternative to the war in Afghanistan, must take into account the legitimate wishes and aspirations of the Afghans for long term stability and economic prosperity. Enforcing things on Afghans, particularly when it gives rise to exploitation of the Afghan circumstances by neighbors, has never worked.
Therefore, I personally believe that Mr. Holbrooke will need
an adviser who has a thorough knowledge of the region and is aware of the sensitive issues that exist between Afghanistan and Pakistan on the one hand and Afghanistan and Iran on the other. A complex problem like that of Afghanistan can not be merely solved by an expert on Shia Brand of Islam,
especially when people's expectation from president Oboma's administration is at a high.
Vali Nasr's father, Seyed Hossein Nasr, was a professor at Tehra
Vali Nasr's father, Seyed Hossein Nasr, was a professor at Tehran University back in the early 70s. He left his next position as Rector of Melli University in 1978 to become head of the Queen's Office. He was chosen because the Shah wanted to show that his regime had good religious connections. Nasr was responsible for the infamous meeting between the Shahbanu and Grand Ayatollah Khoi in Najaf in 1978 that caused the Khomeini-camp to go ballistic when they saw front page photos of the venerable old Khoi meeting with the Queen. I understand there were "harsh words" and an even harsher warning leveled at Khoi by the revolutionaries as a result. The Nasr family had to leave Iran abruptly as Khomeini was coming in. I wonder if they ever made their peace with the Revolutionary government, or if Vali Nasr has ever gone back to Iran? In the West, people are judged by their actions but in Iran (and definitely Afghanistan) family connections and the actions of previous generations are added to analysis and judgement.
Vali Naser and his father ( Regim of Iran )
Vali Naser and his father ( Regim of Iran )
Ahmadinejad is very happy for this .
Islamic fundamentalism is very happy too.
The Iranian Web of Influence in the United States
The Iranian Web of Influence in the United States
Shockingly, Balli Group represents the US Corporations Xerox and Caterpillar in Iran, and has numerous partnerships with other US corporations. How could the US companies enter the Iranian market while there are now more sanctions against Iran than there were a decade ago? These companies have profited from the loopholes in the sanction laws. Their actions have been possible because of the lack of political will in the US in enforcing the sanctions and closing its loopholes.
NIAC + Vali Nasr ( Regim of IRAN )
NIAC + Vali Nasr ( Regim of IRAN )
NIAC welcomes appointment of Iranian American Vali Nasr to Obama ...
National Iranian American Council, DC - 4 hours ago
The National Iranian American Council welcomes the news of Professor Vali Nasr’s appointment as senior advisor to special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan ...