Iran

President Obama today nominated of Philip Coyle, a leading critic of Bush administration missile defense schemes, to be a top White House scientific advisor.

Coyle, who was the head weapons tester at the Pentagon during the Clinton administration, was nominated to become the Associate Director for National Security and International Affairs at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. There he will lead a team tasked with giving scientific advice to Obama on a range of national security issues and will report to Director John Holdren.

Since his last tour at the Pentagon, Coyle has been a leading analyst on weapons systems for the Center for Defense Information, a component of the World Security Institute, a defense-minded think thank. From that perch, he's been actively involved in several of the national security debates involving advanced technology and a staunch watchdog on the missile defense system the Bush administration rushed to deploy throughout its tenure.

Coyle has often pointed out that the testing done by the Pentagon on ballistic missile defense components since 2001 has been either shoddy or thin. Moreover, he has repeatedly questioned the basic rationale for investing billions to deploy ballistic missile defense around the world, especially in Eastern Europe.

"In my view, Iran is not so suicidal as to attack Europe or the United States with missiles," he testified before the House Armed Services Strategic Forces subcommittee in February, "But if you believe that Iran is bound and determined to attack Europe or America, no matter what, then I think you also have to assume that Iran would do whatever it takes to overwhelm our missile defenses, including using decoys to fool the defenses, launching stealthy warheads, and launching many missiles, not just one or two."

Coyle has often argued that the Bush administration rushed to deploy missile defense systems around the world to build momentum and keep money flowing into the program. He has repeatedly said that the Missile Defense Agency has been amassing hardware that is either not aligned with the threat or can't be relied on in case of an actual emergency.

Over $120 billion has been spent on ballistic missile defense since its inception during the Reagan administration.

Coyle's views line up with Ellen Tauscher, who was then the subcommittee chairwoman but who is now Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, which oversees missile defense diplomacy.

Tauscher was part of the decision making process that led to huge changes in the Bush administration plans for missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic. The Obama plan now calls for more short and medium range systems, most of them mobile. These are changes Coyle has also supported.

Coyle must now be confirmed by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. The vetting and confirmation process could take months.

Now that the House has passed Barney Frank's Iran divestment bill, the attention turns to the Senate, where Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback is working to advance his companion measure.

Both pieces of legislation have basically the same idea, to allow both public and private entities to more easily rid themselves of investments in the Iranian economy. The measure is being sold as a way to tweak Iran without actually imposing new sanctions.

After the House passed its version by a 414-6 vote, Brownback said he would try to add his bill as an amendment to the Commerce, Justice, and Science appropriations bill, which is on the Senate floor this week.

"I think we've got a pretty good shot at getting it moved. I haven't heard of any opposition to it," Brownback told The Cable.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-CT, has another Iran sanctions bill that would crack down on refined petroleum exports to Iran and seek to freeze Iranian financial assets.

"You're going to see the banking committee come up with a bundle of steps and there's going to be broad bipartisan support for that as well," Brownback said.

The administration wants Dodd to wait until its ongoing engagement push with Iran plays out. But Dodd is set on moving forward in his committee this month.

As the United States gets closer to finalizing a nuclear-cooperation deal with the United Arab Emirates, one man is emerging as the poster child for critics who fear that the UAE could just become a better conduit for smuggling sensitive technology to Iran if the agreement goes through.

Saud al-Qasimi is the crown prince in control of the UAE port of Ras al-Khaimah, the site of the upcoming America's Cup race. Increasingly, it has also become the preferred distribution point for Iranian smugglers wishing to avoid the more closely watched ports in Dubai, George Webb, the head of the Canada Border Services Agency's Counter Proliferation Section, told Canada's National Post:

While nominally in the U.A.E., the port is controlled by Iran and is situated just across the Gulf from Bandar Abbas, an Iranian city with a naval base and an airport capable of landing large transport planes.

"Ras al-Khaimah is actually leased by the Iranian government, staffed by Iranian customs," Mr. Webb said, as he examined a classified satellite photo of the port.

"We found out about it about six months ago and this is just a little hop, skip and a jump over to a significant airstrip. So if they boat it over, it goes in the plane, it's in Tehran real quick."

He said his officers had been finding materials in Canada that were destined for Ras al-Khaimah but customs inspectors are now on the lookout. "All of our people in those ports are aware, so as soon as they see it, it's hauled aside for examination and follow up."

The region's former ruler, Khalid al-Qasimi, wrote in a letter sent to U.S. lawmakers last week that "The supportive posture [RAK] takes toward the Islamic Republic of Iran is undermining the policies of the United States."

And as if his reputation wasn't bad enough, it was revealed yesterday that Saud al-Qasimi was arrested for sexually assaulting a housekeeper in his hotel near the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota in 2005. The Smoking Gun reports:

While Sheikh Saud has lauded his emirate's selection at the site for the February 2010 America's Cup as a "great moment for us," critics have raised safety concerns due to Ras al-Khaimah's proximity to Iran and the activities of al-Qaeda terrorists in the region. The American team participating in the race is backed by software billionaire Larry Ellison, co-founder and chief executive of Oracle Corporation, who has launched a court challenge seeking to have the yacht race moved to Spain."

Lawmakers are already attacking the credibility of upcoming inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities, preparing their push for greater sanctions if and when the inspections fail to find a smoking gun.

The core of the argument being made by GOP senators is that the Iranians bargained for a lag time longer than the United States wanted before opening their newly discovered Qom nuclear facility to international inspectors, raising concerns that they will scrub the facility of incriminating material.

Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama pressed the issue with Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg at a meeting of the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday morning and Tennessee Republican Sen. Bob Corker piled on.

"Is there any question in anybody's mind that during this period of time between now and October 25 that much of the facility that we are getting ready to inspect will be dismantled?" Corker asked.

Steinberg said that the United States had wanted inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency to take place within two weeks, but had to settle for the Oct. 25 inspection date, more than three and a half weeks after the Oct. 1 meeting between Iran and five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany.

"It's our judgment that this is still a period of time that we can still get a good assessment of what's going on," Steinberg argued, while trying to say that the IAEA team needed some time to prepare for the inspections.

The Shelby-Corker-Steinberg exchange comes only one day after Andrew Semmel, the IAEA's Washington representative, said that there was a real danger that Iran would have too much time to scrub the Qom facility before the inspectors arrived.

"It gives three weeks for the Iranians to clean up anything they might want to hide," Semmel said, "They've been known to do this in the past, whitewashing and so forth."

Semmel also said the whole IAEA inspection exercise might be "perfunctory," because it's not clear that the Qom facility had been developed yet to the stage where really incriminating material would have been stored there.

What Iran watchers are really looking for are definitive signs at Qom that Russian scientists have contributed to the Iranian nuclear program, after reports that Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a list of Russian nuclear scientists helping Iran during his secret meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Steinberg also indicated that the administration does not support, nor does it oppose, the bill put forth by Sens. Joseph Lieberman, Evan Bayh, and Jon Kyl, which would bar any refined petroleum products from being sold to Iran, saying that the administration wanted to preserve maximum flexibility.

That legislation has 75 Senate cosponsors.

ELIZABETH DALZIEL/AFP/Getty Images

The International Atomic Energy Agency has admitted that some of the material in the now-infamous "secret annex" about Iran's nuclear program exists, but claims it wasn't verifiable enough to release, according to the organization's Washington representative.

The classified information, which was collected as part of the IAEA's annual volume on Iran but never made the final cut, claims to prove that Iran "has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device," according to reports.

The Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington research organization headed by former weapons inspector David Albright, published excerpts of the omitted section, which included claims that the agency believed Iran was working on placing nuclear warheads on its Shahab-3 missile.

Andrew Semmel, the IAEA's man in DC, told a group of congressional staffers Monday that he pressed IAEA leadership for answers on the "secret annex" at the general conference in Vienna last month.

"What they're telling me is that of course there's background material ... that you have to produce a report and that report can't include everything that's been collected and surmised, so the report itself is a distillation of all that background information."

IAEA leaders decided they weren't confident in the authenticity of the information contained in the extra document, and they couldn't verify what that research had found.

"They say there is no 'secret annex' but there is 'background information', however you want to characterize that," Semmel said.

"I likened it to the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. That report too, does not include everything that was collected on background," said Semmel, "It's akin to that."

He alluded to reports that different parts of the IAEA bureaucracy have been at odds with each other about how to publicly present the collected information in Iran, but declined to get into specifics.

Some very specific reporting points to a long-running dispute between the IAEA's Department of Safeguards (which advocates a harder line) and its Department of External Relations and Policy Coordination (which is more skeptical).

Outgoing IAEA chief Mohamed Elbaradei, who will come to Washington later this month, is apparently in the risk-averse camp.

National Security Advisor Jim Jones spoke this weekend about the IAEA's secret information file.

"Whether they know how to do it or not is a matter of some conjecture, but what we are watching is what is their intent and we have been worried about that intent," he said.

But even the question of Iran's intent is clearly disputed at the top levels of the Obama administration.

Semmel also told his Capitol Hill audience that the IAEA's planned Oct. 25 visit to the newly revealed Qom facility was probably too late to catch Iran in any nefarious acts.

"One has to be somewhat suspicious. It gives three weeks for the Iranians to clean up anything they might want to hide," he said, "They've been known to do this in the past, whitewashing and so forth."

Greg Bruno at the Council on Foreign Relations snags an interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki during his visit to Washington and Mottaki lays out the Iranian thinking on a host of issues. Below are some excerpts.

Mottaki on the talks in Geneva:

By presenting a package of proposals, we wanted to show that Iran is serious for these negotiations. We have given three topics in the proposed package and that makes it possible for all parties to enter into discussions even about the nuclear program. That also includes political and security issues, economic matters, and international cooperation. And in the international part, some matters can be dedicated to the nuclear programs and nuclear issues. We are optimistic about the talks tomorrow. Because the negotiations are taking place after a long time, we should not have much expectation. Maybe that requires formation of some committees to continue the process.

On the Iran's rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty:

We are not going to compromise our legal rights under any circumstances toward the enjoyment of legal activities. And we have no plan at the moment to withdraw from the NPT.

On allowing access to the newly revealed facility near Qom:

The date will be discussed and coordinated within the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran and the IAEA later on. They would exchange letters. So from our side, there is no problem. Any date that is agreed between the two sides would be respected and the visit or access will be exercised.

On what happened during the G-20:

We think in Pittsburgh, President Obama was misled based on wrong information and wrong analysis. The wrong analysis was provided by the British. Wrong information by certain terrorist groups ... It seems to me that President Obama should be very mindful of these issues and statements.

One day ahead of talks between Iran and the Western powers, Congress is weighing in on the disclosure of Iran's newest secret nuclear facility near the city of Qom.

A bill was introduced Tuesday in the House that would call on Iran to allow "unfettered access" to the Qom enrichment facility and disclose the existence of any additional facilities under its control. The legislation is one of those non-binding items that doesn't actually force action, but its introduction with 33 cosponsors from both parties indicates the rising tide of congressional angst over the Iranian developments.

Democratic Rep. Hank Johnson of Georgia was the original sponsor of the legislation. A spokesman said that a vote on the measure could come this week or next. Johnson decided to get involved in the Iran issue after hearing from constituents during a talk at the Ahavath Achim Jewish congregation in Atlanta, the spokesman said.

"My resolution... supports the administration's negotiating position in Geneva and evidences the unity of Congress and the President on this critical issue," Johnson wrote in a letter to House leadership today.

Meanwhile, Johnson had some interesting words for the Jews of Georgia's 4th district when he spoke to them on Sept. 12, pledging his support for Israel but doling out some tough love in the form of criticism of the Jewish state.

"The state of Israel makes mistakes, as does any state. It sometimes takes action that undermines its interests. Its leaders too often make policy to suit their short-term political priorities, rather than the long term interests of the Israeli people," Johnson said.

"Sometimes the ferocity with which it strikes its enemies demonstrates its tremendous capacity for self-defense; other times it undermines Israel's standing in the world and sews hatred among those who suffer at its hands."

In which we scour the transcript of the State Department's daily presser so you don't have to. Here are the highlights of today's briefing by spokesman Ian Kelly:

• Regarding the news about the secret Iranian nuclear facility in Qom, Kelly said that despite the fact that the American intelligence committee has been watching it for years, "in and of itself the information that we announced today does not contradict the assessment that we made in the [National Intelligence Estimate] in 2007" which said that Iran was no longer working to make nuclear weapons. Really?
• Amid all the news about Iran's nuclear ambitions, let's not forget their detention of American and Canadian citizens without due process, Kelly said. "Individuals in detention include Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari, Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, retired Iranian-American businessman Reza Taghavi, and American hikers Joshua Fattal, Shane Bauer, and Sarah Shourd. American Robert Levinson has also been missing in Iran since March of 2007."
• No release of the pending Burma policy review today, Kelly said. Should be "early next week," maybe even Monday. Has to be before Wednesday, when assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell climbs the Hill to testify before Senator Jim Webb's subcommittee on the new strategy of engaging the junta.
• In other Asia news, President Obama has announced his intention to nominate for House Foreign Affairs Committee staffer Robert King as the new Special Envoy on North Korean Human Rights. No word on whether or not King will actually get to be in any of the meetings with the North Koreans. "I think first we have to make the decision we're going to actually have the bilateral talks, and then we'll see who actually participates in it," Kelly said.
• No announcement yet on whether Amb. Stephen Bosworth will be sent to meet with the North Koreans, but his right-hand man Sung Kim had meetings with South Korean negotiator Wi Sung-lac, which should mean that all the necessary "consultations" are done.
• And finally, responding to e-mails from readers of The Cable about yesterday's Briefing Skipper, I hereby offer you the link to the (maybe) fake sex tape that is at the center of the scandal involving Kyle Hatcher, an aide to U.S. Ambassador John Beyrle in Russia and the Russian intelligence community/press. Warning: NSFW!