Polish FM to Germany: Don’t even try to become a hegemon

Posted By Josh Rogin Friday, February 3, 2012 - 5:05 PM

MUNICH - The first panel at the 2012 Munich Security Conference examined whether Germany should assume a role as the regional, benign hegemon in Europe. But one speaker, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, told the Germans that it's just never going to happen so they shouldn't even try.

The question posed to Sikorski and the other panelists at the Friday evening discussion was whether Germany could play a role in Europe today similar to the role the United States played in Europe after World War II. Sikorski said that Germany doesn't have the attributes of a hegemon, such as an overwhelming economy, a large military budget, and an international role commensurate of a preeminent regional power.

"So you will not be a benign hegemon in Europe and you shouldn't even try," Sikorski told his largely German audience. He even referred to lingering concerns about German power left over from the WWII period.

"Why is Russia always a bigger security challenge than Germany for Poland? When Germany gets too big for its boots, we always automatically add allies," Sikorski said. "So don't get too dizzy with success."

Ouch.

"Germany cannot be said to be said to be similar to the United States [in the post WWII period]," Sikorski said. "The position of benign hegemon for Germany is not attainable, and therefore I would propose your actual position in the EU, which is a very honorable one, is the position of the largest shareholder."

Economically, Germany is only marginally larger than France and Britain, whereas the United States economy dwarfed its rivals when it became a world power, Sikorski said. Also, German trade is largely localized, with 9 out of its 10 largest trading partners located in Europe.

Sikorski said a hegemon must have a significant share of resources, must be able to supply public goods to the wider community, and others must believe the hegemon pursues policies that are at least relatively beneficial to all. Germany doesn't fit the bill, Sikorski said, even when one looks at Germany's defense budget, which is about $43 billion.

"[Former German Chancellor Helmut] Kohl was more right than [former Secretary of State Henry] Kissinger. Kissinger said [Germany is] too big for Europe, [but] too small for the world. Kohl said [Germany is] too big to be first among equals, but too small to dominate in Europe," said Sikorski.

Nevertheless, Sikorski graciously offered to aid Germany's role as the largest, if not the dominant force in Europe.

"Poland declares that we are ready on a pragmatic basis, despite the history, to help you," he said. "As long as we are working towards European solutions."

Johannes Simon/Getty Images

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Joseph Isadore Lieberman honored by the German government

Posted By Josh Rogin Friday, February 3, 2012 - 3:52 PM

MUNICH - As part of the opening events Friday evening at the 2012 Munich Security Conference, the German government honored Sen. Joseph Isadore Lieberman (I-CT) with the Commander's Cross of the Order of Merit as a tribute to his last year serving as a U.S. senator.

"You know, if I had known I would be so honored upon my retirement from the senate, I probably would have retired before the last term," Lieberman said in his acceptance speech. He thanked Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for inviting him to co-chair the U.S. Congressional delegation to the conference over 20 years ago. Every year since, McCain and Lieberman have brought a large contingent of American lawmakers and experts to the conference.

The award is officially awarded by German President Christian Wulff and was presented Friday by German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. Lieberman was quite impressed that Westerwelle knew his middle name.

"I'm usually known as ‘Joseph I. Lieberman' and very few people know what the ‘I' stands for," he said. "In one of my early campaigns for state office, I had a friend who was supporting me who happened to be Irish and Catholic. He was convinced the ‘I' stood for Ignatius."

Lieberman promised to keep on working on behalf of the U.S.-German relationship even after he leaves the Senate.

"I assure you that although I am retiring from the Senate, I'm not retiring," he said. "The U.S. German alliance is an alliance built not on the temporary coincidence of shifting interests, but on the firm values that our two societies share and these are the values of human rights, democracy, free enterprise, the rule of law, and individual freedom."

Westerwelle noted that the Germans have not always agreed with Lieberman, such as when they opposed the war in Iraq, but he praised Lieberman's commitment to the relationship.

"Over the years we've agreed on many issues. Of course I cannot deny we've also had some disagreements on others. And I believe that is the way it should be among friends and allies," he said. "But you always kept talking and we never gave up finding solutions to the problems that lie ahead of us."

Westerwelle then quoted Vice President Joe Biden's speech from the 2009 Munich conference, when Biden said, "When sharing ideas and searching for purpose in a more complex world, Americans and Europeans still look to one another before they look to anyone else."

Saturday, the conference kicks into full gear, with highly anticipated speeches by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton, and many others.

Also on Saturday, Lieberman will become the third ever recipient of the Ewald von Kleist Award, named after the man who founded the conference in 1962. The first two recipients were former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who was in attendance at Friday's ceremony, and former NATO Secretary General Javier Solana de Madariaga.

Josh Rogin/Foreign Policy

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Special Briefing Skipper: NATO takes over the Libya war

Posted By Josh Rogin Friday, March 25, 2011 - 11:13 AM

Two senior administration officials held a late evening conference call with reporters Thursday night to explain how NATO agreed to take over military operations in Libya and why the U.S. and NATO leadership seem to be giving totally conflicting messages on whether NATO is taking over political control of the war as well:

"Today we are taking the next step," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday evening. "We have agreed, along with our NATO allies, to transition command and control for the no-fly zone over Libya to NATO. All 28 allies have also now authorized military authorities to develop an operations plan for NATO to take on the broader civilian protection mission under Resolution 1973." She will go to London on Tuesday to meet with all the other foreign ministers, "to continue coordinating with our partners and charting the way forward," she said.
Clinton was involved intensively in working on this over the last couple of days. On Wednesday she spoke with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and NATO Secretary General Anders "Fogh of war" Rasmussen. On Thursday she spoke with Davutoglu again and French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe. She then convened a four way call between her, Juppe, Davutoglu, and British Foreign Secretary William Hague, "during which time they hammered out the deal which was later announced," a senior administration official said. Juppe remarked on the call "Bravo, Hillary!" the official said.
Clinton also spoke with UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdulla bin Zayed Al Nahyan and thanked him for UAE's announcement that they will join the coalition with six F-16 and six Mirage aircraft to help patrol the no fly zone.
The other senior administration official said that NATO control of the no fly zone will start immediately but it will take a couple of days to complete the transfer. He also said NATO agreed to "take on responsibility for all aspects of UNSCR 1973," which would include the no drive zone. That directly contradicts what Rasmussen said. "What we have decided tonight is to take the responsibility for enforcing the No-Fly Zone with the aim to protect the civilian population, and the mandate doesn't go beyond that, of course we can act in self-defence, but what we will do is to enforce the No-Fly Zone and ensure that we protect the civilian population," said Rasmussen. "But we are considering whether NATO should take on that broader responsibility in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution, but that decision has not been made yet."
The senior administration official said he was right and Rasmussen was wrong. "NATO will take over the command and control of the other part, which is the protection of civilians," the official insisted. "NATO also reached a political agreement that it needs to include within that mission... all other aspects of UNSCR 1973, including the protection of civilian and civilian areas against the actual threat of attack." The North Atlantic Council will be in control of the political decisions, the official said. "That is a very significant political decision."
So did Germany really go along with this? Well, the Germans won't actually participate but they won't stand in the way either, the official said, adding that German assets would be increased in Afghanistan to allow other NATO allies to shift assets over to Libya. NATO bases in Germany will also be available for NATO's use for the Libya war.
From now on, the Libya war will be subject to the control of the North Atlantic Council and run through Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Adm. James Stavridis, who will be testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday coincidentally. The "Joint Task Force" commander who will run the day to day out of Naples will be Canadian Lieutenant General Charlie Bouchard, the official said. "NATO does welcome the participation of non NATO members in this operation."
Does this mark the end of the French proposal to create a "political steering committee" of western and Arab foreign ministers to run the political aspects of the Libya war? The NAC will be the "guiding and deciding body" for all the military operations. "When it comes to deciding on what will or won't happen with the NATO operation, that gets done in Brussels," the official said.

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White House: Turkey on board with NATO command in Libya; France not so much

Posted By Josh Rogin Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 1:15 PM

President Barack Obama spoke on Monday evening with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the two agreed that NATO should have a command and control role in the Libya war, according to a White House read out of the phone call. But today in Brussels, the French government said it doesn't agree.

"The President and the Prime Minister reaffirmed their support for the full implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973, in order to protect the Libyan people," the White House said. "The leaders agreed that this will require a broad-based international effort, including Arab states, to implement and enforce the UN resolutions, based on national contributions and enabled by NATO's unique multinational command and control capabilities to ensure maximum effectiveness."

The Turkish government has been very clear that it does not support NATO-led enforcement of the no-fly zone over Libya if the mission goes beyond the U.N.-sanctioned objective of protecting Libyan civilians.

"We do not want Libya to become a second Iraq.... A civilization in Iraq collapsed within eight years. More than a million people were killed there," Turkey's daily Hürriyet newspaper quoted Erdogan as saying on Monday on the way back from Saudi Arabia. "We will not participate with our fighting forces. It is impossible for us to think that our fighters would drop bombs over the Libyan people."

Turkey laid out its position at Tuesday's NATO meeting in Brussels. The Turks are still upset they were not invited to the Paris planning meeting on March 19, the day the air strikes began. Turkey has also taken over as the protecting power of the U.S. in Tripoli, meaning they would be in charge of direct interactions with the Libyan government and responsible for the abandoned U.S. embassy, their government announced on Monday.

Meanwhile, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Tuesday that France now opposes NATO taking over the Libya mission. The French and German representatives reportedly stormed out of the Monday meeting in Brussels over disagreements about NATO's role, albeit for very different reasons. Germany is opposed to the military intervention altogether.

The confusion is causing problems for the rest of the coalition as well. Norway said Tuesday it was "suspending" its promise to use F-16 fighter jets in combat in Libya until the command structure issue was worked out, even though its jets had already arrived at the staging base in Italy.

All of this puts into question the viability of Obama's pledge on Monday that the U.S. will transfer command of the military mission in Libya in "a matter of days."

Adding to the questions over the endgame, Obama and Erdogan also "underscored their shared commitment to the goal of helping provide the Libyan people an opportunity to transform their country, by installing a democratic system that respects the people's will," the White House said.

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