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The Obama administration won't announce its new comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan until after Thanksgiving, a White House official confirms to The Cable, and observers and experts close to the discussions see it as the White House's attempt to stage a full and controlled rollout over the week beginning November 30.

By waiting until Congress returns from its Thanksgiving vacation, the White House can have the time to directly consult with key lawmakers and then have senior officials testify soon after the announcement is made. In that way, the argument goes, the administration can build more support for the policy, deal quickly with any opposition on Capitol Hill, and then have a more active role in how the story plays out in the media.

"They're going to have to come out with both guns blazing and they're going to have to have their stuff together with consultations and everything," said one senior GOP foreign policy staffer close to the issue.

The administration isn't going to want to make the announcement and then wait a long time before holding the hearings, because that would make it more difficult to keep the message consistent after the news breaks.

Plus, congressional attention will be diverted that week to the health-care debate in the Senate, distracting some attention from the Afghanistan debate, which may be part of the administration's calculations.

"You basically own the space, but you fold it under the debate over health care," the staffer speculated about the administration's thinking, "That way you can't be accused of burying it."

Meanwhile, the staffs of key principals have already begun crafting the rollout and testimony speeches, leaving holes in the text to fill in whatever the President's specific troop and resource decisions might turn out to be.

The reports about the substance of the president's pending decision have been all over the map, with many stating that Obama simply hasn't reached a final conclusion on how to move forward. But there is increasing chatter that one scheme, known as the "Gates option" after Defense Secretary Robert Gates, may be gaining momentum.

That option would deploy three brigades to Afghanistan, short of the four envisioned by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, but with the option to deploy the fourth later should the need be demonstrated.

The president and key national security team members return from their trip to Asia today.

The Obama administration specifically requested that the Senate Armed Services Committee postpone a planned briefing today on the Fort Hood massacre, The Cable has learned, in another clear sign that the White House is pushing Congress away from doing its own investigative work into the tragedy.

The briefing, which had been announced last week to include Secretary of the Army John McHugh and Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey, was to be for members and staff only.

The development shows the administration is following up on remarks made by Obama over the weekend encouraging Congress to hold off pursuing independent action on the case while the government is still investigating.

"I know there will also be inquiries by Congress, and there should," Obama said in his weekly address on Saturday traveling around Asia. "But all of us should resist the temptation to turn this tragic event into the political theater that sometimes dominates the discussion here in Washington. The stakes are far too high."

A spokesman for the committee confirmed to The Cable that the briefing was postponed at the administration's behest. The meeting was set to be closed, but knowing how Congress leaks like a sieve, the administration may not have wanted to risk giving lawmakers who want to try Hasan in the press any more ammunition. General Casey cautioned last week that too much public speculation could lead to a "backlash" against Muslim soldiers.

Several members of the committee have been out in front of the administration in making statements about the alleged shooter Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan and his alleged links to extremists, which may or may not have been overlooked by the military.

Among the committee members who are working actively on the "Hasan is a terrorist" angle is Joseph Lieberman, I-CT, who has pledged to use his Homeland Security committee to launch an investigation into Hasan's motives.

Committee ranking Republican John McCain might also be looking for evidence to support his statements regarding Hasan. During a question-and-answer session following his speech at the University of Louisville, McCain said of the incident, "I believe it was an act of terror."

A White House spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.

UPDATE: "Tomorrow morning, an interagency briefing team will go to the Hill to brief House and Senate leaders and committee chairs and ranking members. This is the latest in a series of engagements with the Hill since the horrific events at Fort Hood, and further evidence of the administration's commitment to appropriately inform Congress without interfering in the prosecution of this case," said White House spokesman Tommy Vietor.

President Obama today nominated of Philip Coyle, a leading critic of Bush administration missile defense schemes, to be a top White House scientific advisor.

Coyle, who was the head weapons tester at the Pentagon during the Clinton administration, was nominated to become the Associate Director for National Security and International Affairs at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. There he will lead a team tasked with giving scientific advice to Obama on a range of national security issues and will report to Director John Holdren.

Since his last tour at the Pentagon, Coyle has been a leading analyst on weapons systems for the Center for Defense Information, a component of the World Security Institute, a defense-minded think thank. From that perch, he's been actively involved in several of the national security debates involving advanced technology and a staunch watchdog on the missile defense system the Bush administration rushed to deploy throughout its tenure.

Coyle has often pointed out that the testing done by the Pentagon on ballistic missile defense components since 2001 has been either shoddy or thin. Moreover, he has repeatedly questioned the basic rationale for investing billions to deploy ballistic missile defense around the world, especially in Eastern Europe.

"In my view, Iran is not so suicidal as to attack Europe or the United States with missiles," he testified before the House Armed Services Strategic Forces subcommittee in February, "But if you believe that Iran is bound and determined to attack Europe or America, no matter what, then I think you also have to assume that Iran would do whatever it takes to overwhelm our missile defenses, including using decoys to fool the defenses, launching stealthy warheads, and launching many missiles, not just one or two."

Coyle has often argued that the Bush administration rushed to deploy missile defense systems around the world to build momentum and keep money flowing into the program. He has repeatedly said that the Missile Defense Agency has been amassing hardware that is either not aligned with the threat or can't be relied on in case of an actual emergency.

Over $120 billion has been spent on ballistic missile defense since its inception during the Reagan administration.

Coyle's views line up with Ellen Tauscher, who was then the subcommittee chairwoman but who is now Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, which oversees missile defense diplomacy.

Tauscher was part of the decision making process that led to huge changes in the Bush administration plans for missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic. The Obama plan now calls for more short and medium range systems, most of them mobile. These are changes Coyle has also supported.

Coyle must now be confirmed by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. The vetting and confirmation process could take months.

Don't look for a huge "civilian surge" of State Department personnel to Afghanistan, no matter what the pending strategy review says, according to Deputy Secretary of State Jack Lew.

The State Department is increasing its presence in Afghanistan and is responding to some increased requests from Amb. Karl Eikenberry, but other than that, State is not planning currently to match any escalation of troops with a huge increase in its presence there.

"I would not expect radical changes," Lew told reporters at a briefing Monday, "To the extent that there's a thickening of presence in an area, that doesn't necessarily mean that you would increase the civilian presence in the area. To the extent that there are new areas that are being covered by the military, that could raise either a redeployment of civilians or a need for additional civilians."

The current plan is to have 974 civilians in Afghanistan, 423 of those would be from State and 333 from USAID, a number that stands in stark contrast to the approximately 68,000 military personnel there, not to mention the tens of thousands of more that could be on the way.

There are 603 civilians currently on the ground in Afghanistan, Lew said, up from 320 in January. Another 282 are in processing to go there and 89 positions are currently being recruited, both from government and outside experts.

"We are going to have, when we're fully deployed, 388 civilians outside of Kabul," Lew said, noting that right now, there are exactly 157 civilians not stationed in the capital city.

He also responded to the question of how hard it might be to get civilians to go to Afghanistan, in light of protests in 2007 when talk of forcing Foreign Service officers to go to Baghdad caused an open revolt.

"It's not for everyone," Lew said. "Some people sign up and by the time they get through training, don't decide it's for them. Some people go out and come back. But that's really very few, compared to the total. And there's no compulsion in this."

The budget for such programs rose from $2.2 billion in fiscal 2009 to $2.8 billion for fiscal 2010, as a result of the strategic review completed in March. Since fiscal 2009 supplemental funding was dispersed so late, there could be a windfall in storewhen the fiscal 2010 money comes through, although there is no telling when that bill will be completed.

The programs in Afghanistan are all managed at the top by Assistant Amb. Tony Wayne, Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs, who was appointed only in June.

Lew also talked about the ongoing effort to transfer nongovernmental aid programs in Pakistan away from Western organizations and toward Pakistani groups.

"The idea of getting our foreign assistance as directly to the people who are going to use it as efficiently as possible is central to the way we're thinking about foreign assistance and development generally," Lew said, adding that since many of the contracts were up for renewal at the beginning of October, it gave the impression this transfer was more immediate and widespread than it necessarily was.

Robin Raphel, the former Ambassador now a part of Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke's staff, is in Pakistan right now leading a case by case review of all of these projects, Lew said.

Sarah Palin made huge news when she spoke yesterday to a group of Hong Kong business types with former McCain campaign foreign-policy guru Randy Scheunemann in tow. The speech included some of the most critical statements about the Chinese Communist Party by an American political leader in years.

Now The Cable brings you previously unreleased extended excerpts of Palin's speech, which give a window into the foreign-policy persona she is crafting in anticipation of 2012.

Palin on the post Cold War international order:

Later this year, we will celebrate the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall - an event that changed not just Europe but the entire world.  In a matter of months, millions of people in formerly captive nations were freed to pursue their individual and national ambitions.

The competition that defined the post World War II era was suddenly over. What was once called "the free world" had so much to celebrate - the peaceful end to a great power rivalry and the liberation of so many from tyranny's grip.  

Some, you could say, took the celebration too far.  Many spoke of a "peace dividend," of the need to focus on domestic issues and spend less time, attention and money on endeavors overseas.  Many saw a peaceful future, where globalization would break down borders and lead to greater global prosperity. Some argued that state sovereignty would fade - like that was a good thing? -- , that new non-governmental actors and old international institutions would become dominant in the new world order.

As we all know, that did not happen.

On the so-called Global War on Terror:

This war - and that is what it is, a war - is not, as some have said, a clash of civilizations.  We are not at war with Islam. This is a war WITHIN Islam, where a small minority of violent killers seeks to impose their view on the vast majority of Muslims who want the same things all of us want: economic opportunity, education, and the chance to build a better life for themselves and their families.  The reality is that al Qaeda and its affiliates have killed scores of innocent Muslim men, women and children.  

On the U.S.-led mission in Afghanistan:

We can win in Afghanistan by helping the Afghans build a stable representative state able to defend itself.  And we must do what it takes to prevail.  The stakes are very high.

On the U.S. defense budget and federal spending:

We need to go back to fiscal discipline and unfortunately that has not been the view of the current Administration.  They're spending everywhere and with disregard for deficits and debts and our future economic competitiveness. Though we are engaged in two wars and face a diverse array of threats, it is the DEFENSE budget that has seen significant program cuts and has actually been reduced from current levels!

First, the Defense Department received only ½ of 1 % of the nearly trillion dollar Stimulus Package funding -- even though many military projects fit the definition of "shovel-ready."  In this Administration's first defense budget request for 2010, important programs were reduced or cancelled.  As the threat of ballistic missiles from countries like North Korea and Iran grow, missile defense was slashed.

On the Chinese military:

China has some 1000 missiles aimed at Taiwan and no serious observer believes Taiwan poses a military threat to Beijing. Those same Chinese forces make our friends in Japan and Australia nervous. China provides support for some of the world's most questionable regimes from Sudan to Burma to Zimbabwe. China's military buildup raises concerns from Delhi to Tokyo because it has taken place in the absence of any discernable external threat.  

China, along with Russia, has repeatedly undermined efforts to impose tougher sanctions on Iran for its defiance of the international community in pursuing its nuclear program.  The Chinese food and product safety record has raised alarms from East Asia and Europe to the United States.  And, domestic incidents of unrest -- from the protests of Uighurs and Tibetans, to Chinese workers throughout the country rightfully make us nervous.  

On democracy and human rights:

I am not talking about some U.S.-led "democracy crusade."  We cannot impose our values on other counties.  Nor should we seek to.  But the ideas of freedom, liberty and respect for human rights are not U.S. ideas, they are much more than that.

President Barack Obama makes his first foreign trip as president this Thursday to Canada. NSC officials said the focus of Obama's visit with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be trade, NAFTA, and economic recovery, as well as energy security and Afghanistan. At immediate "issue is a controversial so-called 'Buy American' provision requiring the use of U.S.-produced iron, steel, and other manufactured goods in public works projects funded by the $787 billion economic stimulus bill," CNN reports.

Asked in a press call for Obama's message to audiences around the world about his visit, NSC director of strategic communications Denis McDonough responded, "The president feels that the fact is, every day is an opportunity for us to send a clear message to the world and that is why the president has invested as much time as he did and effort to ensure and send a clear signal that the U.S. is leading on this economic recovery package, that he is trying to dramatically expand demand in a difficult time of the economy."