Latin America

The two battling sides in the Honduran crisis have come to an agreement that would allow ousted President Manuel Zelaya to return to office, after a parliamentary vote and with the prior approval of the Supreme Court.

Also included in the deal are terms for a power sharing government, an agreement to respect the results of November 29 elections, and the establishment of a trust commission to weigh in on how the crisis started in the first place.

A U.S. delegation has been in Tagucigalpa since Wednesday, led by Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Tom Shannon, principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Craig Kelly, and National Security Council Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs Dan Restrepo.

Zelaya was deposed June 28 by force and replaced with a de facto regime led by Roberto Micheletti. Zelaya snuck back into Honduras last month and has been hiding out in the Brazilian embassy in Tagucigalpa ever since.

Here are Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's congratulatory remarks, delivered while traveling in Pakistan:

I'm very pleased to announce that we've had a breakthrough in negotiations in Honduras.

I want to congratulate the people of Honduras as well as President Zelaya and Mr. Micheletti for reaching an historic agreement. I also congratulate Costa Rican President Oscar Arias for the important role he has played in fashioning the San Jose process and the OAS for its role in facilitating the successful round of talks.

As you know, I sent Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon and his deputy Craig Kelly and the White House NSC representative for the Western Hemisphere Dan Ristreppo to Honduras yesterday after speaking with both President Zelaya and Mr. Micheletti last Friday to urge them finally, once and for all to reach an agreement.

I cannot think of another example of a country in Latin America that having suffered a rupture of its democratic and constitutional order overcame such a crisis through negotiation and dialogue.

This is a big step forward for the Inter-American system and its commitment to democracy as embodied in the Inter-American Democratic Charter. I'm very proud that I was part of the process, that the United States was instrumental in the process. But I'm mostly proud of the people of Honduras who have worked very hard to have this matter resolved peacefully.

We're looking forward to the elections that will be held on November 29, and working with the people and government of Honduras to realize the full return of democracy and a better future for the Honduran people.

After weeks of little progress, the State Department is reversing its policy of freezing out the de facto regime in Honduras. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke with both current leader Roberto Micheletti and ousted President Manuel Zelaya over the weekend and a full administration team will travel to Tegucigalpa later this week.

The delegation will consist of Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Tom Shannon, principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Craig Kelly, and National Security Council Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs Dan Restrepo, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said Tuesday.

The administration has been quietly communicating with the Micheletti regime recently, after initially siding with Zelaya, who has come under criticism for his increasing strange behavior since he returned to Honduras and decided to hide out in the Brazilian Embassy.

The new engagement comes as the two battling sides in the Honduran political dispute seem to be nearing an agreement after weeks of intense negotiations.

The delegation "will urge both sides to show flexibility and redouble their efforts to bring the crisis to an end," Kelly said, adding that progress was made as recently as this morning. Clinton decided to get involved after seeing what was then regarded as an impasse last Friday.

Elections in Honduras are planned for Nov. 29 and the need to properly prepare is what's driving the timeline, according to Kelly.

"In order for it to be seen as legitimate and for the authorities down there to conduct a completely open and transparent electoral process, that there needs to be some time. And this is precisely why we see some urgency in this," he said.

The fate of Shannon's nomination to become ambassador to Brazil and Arturo Valenzuela's nomination to replace Shannon hang in the balance as well. Sen. Jim DeMint, R-SC, has said he would release his holds on the two after the administration comes out in support of the elections.

The two sides are working off the San Jose Accord document, but have been stuck on the issue of what Zelaya's role would be if and when the truce is signed.

Jim DeMint is ready to release his holds against two top administration Latin America appointees, the South Carolina senator told The Cable, and he predicts the State Department will soon recognize the upcoming Honduran elections as legitimate.

In an exclusive interview, DeMint said he was seeing signs of movement from the State Department related to U.S. policy toward Honduras and that he had come close to an agreement over his hold in his meeting earlier this week with Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Thomas Shannon.

"We got a lot of agreement in the area of coming to terms with recognizing the upcoming elections there," DeMint said of his meeting with Shannon."That's what I'm waiting for from our government, signals that we're going to recognize those elections and move forward."

"I'm anxious to release both of the holds, but I'm not going to do that until I see some positive movements from the administration," he added.

DeMint is singularly holding up Shannon's nomination to become ambassador to Brazil as well as the nomination of Arturo Valenzuela to take Shannon's post. Shannon just returned from Honduras, where he met with de facto regime leader Roberto Micheletti as part of an Organization of American States delegation.

The State Department had been freezing out the Micheletti government, refusing to deal with its leaders directly and even pulling their visas to visit the United States. But as Micheletti gets closer to an agreement with ousted former President Manuel Zelaya, DeMint said the State Department would have no choice but to adjust its approach.

DeMint credited the congressional delegations that have visited Tegucigalpa, including one he led personally, with loosening the State Department's stance. He predicted that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would come out in support of the elections once the two sides in Honduras come to terms, but noted that Shannon wasn't yet ready to go that far.

"He realized that it is essential that these elections go forward and are recognized," DeMint said of Shannon. "But he did not say they are ready to recognize them."

As the two battling parties in the Honduran presidential dispute struggle to reach a settlement, the State Department has been communicating behind the scenes with both camps, a senior State Department official told The Cable.

Officially, the State Department has pledged not to interact directly with the leader of the de facto regime in Tegucigalpa, led by Roberto Micheletti, throwing the full support of the U.S. government behind ousted President Manuel Zelaya and the diplomatic efforts by the Organization of American States (OAS) and Costa Rican President Oscar Arias.

But the State Department is also in contact with the Micheletti camp through indirect channels, including businessmen in Honduras and friends of the de facto regime in the United States, the official explained. The goal was both to get information and to push both sides to come to a resolution of the conflict, which has been raging since Micheletti's June 28 takeover.

"Our message to both sides is, 'Listen, this is a golden opportunity and let's not lose it,'" the senior official said.

Thomas Shannon, the outgoing assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, also was part of a recent OAS delegation to Honduras that did meet with Micheletti, although there were no direct one-on-one talks between Shannon and the regime.

The State Department's latest reading of the situation in Honduras is that the two sides are extremely close to an agreement, but stuck on the issue of the role Zelaya would play if a deal is signed.

"It's a really fluid situation that seems to be changing minute by minute," said the official. Zelaya is still hiding out in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa.

Almost all of the provisions of the San Jose Accord are said to be part of the new agreement, but Article 6, which states that all government posts should return to their status before the coup began, is a sticking point with the Micheletti camp, which is said to adamantly oppose Zelaya retaking his presidential position. (The Micheletti regime issued a statement to that effect.)

Meanwhile, Shannon met today with South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, who is holding up Shannon's nomination to become ambassador to Brazil and Arturo Valenzuela's nomination to take over Shannon's job.

DeMint has been hugely critical of the administration's Honduras policy and took a delegation there to meet with Micheletti against the State Department's wishes. There is speculation that if the situation in Tegucigalpa gets resolved, DeMint would release his holds, but neither of those things has happened just yet.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking Republican Richard Lugar, R-IN, is also heavily interested in a resolution of the Honduran crisis.

"Consistent with the progress made by negotiators, the de facto government of Honduras should rescind the decree limiting fundamental civil and political rights. I also call on the supporters of President Zelaya to refrain from provocation and acts of violence," Lugar said in a statement.

Following State Department official Bisa Williams's trip to Havana last month, the discussion of changes to U.S. Cuba policy has taken off, bringing together an unusual amalgamation of progressive internationalists and old-bull realists centered around the common realization that a window for engagement may be opening.

"I am a diplomat but I think there is an opportunity. I think we are ready to take that opportunity," Jorge Bolaños Suarez, who represents Cuba in Washington in lieu of a formal ambassador, told a group of policy wonks at a Thursday reception on the USS Sequoia, organized by the New America Foundation, a centrist Washington think tank.

Bolaños related a story in which Obama's State Department recently denied a visa to Ricardo Alarcon de Quesada, the president of Cuba's National Assembly, three days before he was to come to Washington for a conference. Upon hearing the news, Alarcon asked Bolaños to thank the State Department because it was the first time they had actually given three-days' notice that his visa would be denied.

"This is an improvement. I assure you this is an improvement," Bolaños joked, adding on a more serious note, "There is a lot of hiding and issues on both sides, but everything is possible once we sit down at the table, and everything is possible if we both respect sovereignty, a sense of equality and sole determination for each country."

The U.S. embargo against Cuba, which was instituted following Fidel Castro's 1958 overthrow of the U.S.-supported Batista regime and strengthened due to Castro's alignment with the Soviet Union, has not been significantly revisited despite the Cold War ending almost 20 years ago.

The audience at the Bolaños event was eclectic, ranging from Dana Marshall, a former economic advisor to Vice President Al Gore, to Phillip Peters, vice president of the conservative think tank the Lexington Institute, and retired Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton, now with the left-leaning National Security Network.

Steve Clemons, New America's foreign-policy chief and the editor of The Washington Note, organized the event and has been building a left-right coalition of thinkers who believe there is simply no continued rationale for America's refusal to thaw the relationship.

"During the Bush-Cheney years, the only place in the world where the Cold War actually got colder was in U.S.-Cuba policy," said Clemons, referring to travel restrictions and remittance caps that Bush put forth and Obama has since repealed.

U.S.-Cuba policy has been held hostage by some in the Miami Cuban community, but even that community's views are evolving as a new generation takes over, said Clemons. But although family issues are involved, the core argument of Cuba engagement advocates is that reforming the Cuba approach is simply sound strategy.

"The unilateral embargo that the U.S. has maintained for five decades has failed to produce any positive results," said Clemons. "Fixing this -- and putting U.S.-Cuba relations on a constructive course would be an easy win for the Obama administration. Cuba is the least expensive, lowest-hanging fruit among foreign policy challenges facing Obama."

The loose coalition of foreign-policy thinkers calling for this goal is still being formed. It now includes former Secretary of State George Schultz (who last year said "I think our policy of sanctions against Cuba is ridiculous"), former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson.

Richardson, who traveled to Cuba in August, gave a speech Friday calling for Cuba engagement at the New Democrat Network, a left-leaning think tank in Washington.

"For the sake of improving our image in Latin America and our interests, it makes sense to normalize relations with Cuba," he said, saying that the first step should be for Obama to issue an executive order lifting the travel ban, followed by exchanges of cultural, medical, and academic delegations.

He warned that congressional resistance would be tough to overcome, including the strong influence of New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, who strongly supports the embargo. In 1996, Congress passed the Helms-Burton Act strengthening the embargo, which is still in effect.

Advocates of lifting it recognize that the goal is not in the offing anytime soon. They point to symbolic gestures, such as the turning off of propaganda signs at the American interests section in Havana, as small steps in the right direction.

Meanwhile, there is at least a perception that the Cubans haven't responded to Obama's overtures.

"You Cubans have got to do something; you've got to reciprocate with suggestions," Richardson said he told his Cuban interlocutors. But he added that Obama's positive image and the small concessions he has offered are changing attitudes in Cuba as well.

"They like the guy," said Richardson. "So I think that's a positive step."

Photo: Sandy Choi for FP

To the great chagrin of the State Department, a group of Republicans led by South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint have opened up a second front of U.S. engagement toward Honduras, conducting their own version of shuttle diplomacy.

DeMint took a band of lawmakers to meet with the de facto regime there this weekend, maneuvering past objections of Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman John Kerry to set up a channel of communication with the new leadership, which has been completely snubbed by the Obama administration.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has made it clear that the U.S. is siding with ousted President Manuel Zelaya, but Zelaya's erratic behavior since he snuck back into Honduras and holed himself up in the Brazilian Embassy, combined with the apparent failure of diplomatic efforts by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias and the Organization of American States, has provided an opening for those in Washington who argue that engaging the current leadership there is both strategic and practical.

Back in Washington, the battle over Honduras policy is tangled up with DeMint's effort to hold up the nominations of two of Obama's key Latin America appointees, Thomas Shannon to be U.S. ambassador to Brazil and Arturo Valenzuela to be assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Richard Lugar, R-IN, said in an interview with The Cable that he supports the GOP trips to Honduras but not DeMint's holds.

"On balance it may be helpful. Clearly there was an impasse there," said Lugar, referring to the trips. "Our foreign policy has tried to be mindful and consistent with the OAS and this has led really to our having really no representation in the country."

Lugar himself intended to visit with de facto President Roberto Micheletti before the State Department pulled his visa as part of its freeze-out.

Lugar has pressed DeMint repeatedly to drop the holds. He said that a successful election on Nov. 29 election and a recognition of the election results by the administration would likely lead to DeMint releasing his holds and could also represent the way out of the crisis.

"Presently I think we're headed toward a foreign-policy disaster of an election that would not be recognized by anybody and really no way out of the pass," said Lugar.

OAS officials are in Tegucigalpa today to try to mediate between the two sides, with Shannon as part of the delegation. And although Lugar is hopeful, he is preparing to press the administration later this week to alter its Honduras policy to prepare for a post-Nov. 29 relationship with whoever wins.

"For the moment I see an impending debacle which would be very unfortunate for the people of Honduras, quite apart from a failure of our own foreign policy," Lugar said.

DeMint briefed GOP senators on his trip during Tuesday's caucus lunch, the first full discussion of the issue among Republicans, Lugar said.

Congressman Peter Roskam, R-Ill, also spoke with The Cable just after returning from Tegucigalpa to talk about his delegation and the strategy behind the GOP's controversial engagement approach.

The delegation, which in addition to DeMint and Roskam included Reps. Aaron Schock, R-FL, and Doug Lamborn, R-CO, met with Micheletti, as well as several other senior regime leaders, the entire Supreme Court, all the candidates for the upcoming election, several American expatriates, and selected representatives of Honduran civil society groups.

House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-FL, was expected to meet with Micheletti as well the next day.

Although the State Department tried to prevent the delegation from going, U.S. consular officials did assist the delegation logistically, but did not participate in the meetings, Roskam said. The delegation also had a tense meeting with U.S. Amb. Hugo Llorens, in which Roskam described him as being "very defensive."

"The very consistent theme that was coming across was a sense of bewilderment from all the Hondurans we were meeting with at their treatment by the United States," Roskam related.

Micheletti acknowledged to the group that he did not have the authority to physically remove Zelaya from the country, but he seeks communication with the U.S. government and was not pleased that the State Department had cut him off.

The conclusion Roskam drew from the trip was that the problem in Honduras won't be solved until the Nov. 29 election, in which neither Micheletti nor Zelaya is running -- that is, if it can meet reasonable standards of freedom and fairness.

U.S. trade with Honduras is at stake, Roskam argued, and is needed to counter the expanding regional influence of anti-American forces such as Venezuela's Hugo Chávez.

"It's in our interest to lay out a clear pathway after which we can recognize a government that's chosen on November 29," Roskam said, "The Hondurans are going to choose."

Sen. Jim DeMint, R-SC, is holding up the nominations of Thomas Shannon to be U.S. ambassador to Brazil and Arturo Valenzuela to be assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, a job previously held by Shannon. Valenzuela currently directs the Center for Latin American Studies in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and was a National Security Council staffer during Bill Clinton's second term.

Senators' holds on presidential nominees, it should be noted, only really exist in people's minds. There's no form to fill out, no button to push. When a senator informs congressional leaders he has a "hold" on any of the hundreds of people awaiting Senate confirmation, that's it. The "hold" is just a threat by that Senator to use his regular parliamentary powers to create enough havoc that it forces the leadership, or the administration, to address his concerns.

Most times, the "holds" have nothing to do with the actual nominees themselves, but are simply a chance for a senator to make a policy point, get some information he or she's been seeking, or perhaps eek out some concessions before letting a new appointment go through. In this case, DeMint is engaged in a fight with President Obama over how to react to the sudden removal of President Manuel Zelaya in Honduras.

Latin America watchers had been hoping that some progress on Shannon and Valenzuela's nominations would have been made during the August recess, but apparently not, according to an article today in the The Hill, a congressionally focused Washington newspaper:

Richard Verma, the State Department's assistant secretary of legislative affairs, approached DeMint this past week about releasing the holds but the South Carolina senator is standing firm.

"Both of these nominees rushed to oppose the rule of law in Honduras and want to force a Chavez-style dictator back into power," DeMint told The Hill. "They exemplify this administration's misguided and heavy-handed tactics against the Honduran people and side with those who trample freedom."

Facing stiff resistance, Obama administration officials have asked Sen. Dick Lugar (Ind.), the senior Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, to intervene, but to little avail so far.

"I've been attempting to work with Sen. DeMint to release the holds; we do need to have those officials," said Lugar.

"It's very important in terms of our overall relations with Latin American countries that we've have been attempting to enhance with much more vigorous diplomacy," he added.

DeMint said in an interview that he does not want the standoff over the nominees to erupt into a major confrontation but felt he had to pressure the administration into restoring foreign aid to Honduras.

Cuban president Raul Castro has responded to moves by the Obama administration this week to relax restrictions on Cuban American travel and remittances to the island, saying he welcomes talking about "everything" with the U.S. government.

"We have sent messages to the U.S. government in private and in public that we are willing to discuss everything, whenever they want," Castro said in a speech in Venezuela Thursday, as cited by Reuters.

"Human rights, press freedom, political prisoners, everything, everything, everything they want to talk about," Castro said.

Meantime, Fidel Castro has replied to a letter from 12 retired senior U.S. military officers -- including Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton (ret.), former drug czar Gen. Barry McCaffrey, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, and Lt. Gen. Claudia Kennedy -- calling on U.S. President Barack Obama and Congress to end the travel ban to Cuba for all Americans, not just those of Cuban descent. The letter was organized by the New America Foundation and the National Security Network.  

"We give thanks to those who wrote the letter to Obama, just as we thank senators Lugar and Delahunt, the Caucus and other influential members of Congress," the elder Castro wrote.

"We do not fear dialogue; we do not need to invent enemies," he continued. "We do not fear the debate of ideas; we believe in our convictions and with them we have known how to defend and continue defending our homeland."

Cuba is excluded from the 34-nation Summit of the Americas getting underway in Trinidad and Tobago today, which Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are attending.

Photo: ENRIQUE DE LA OSA/AFP/Getty Images