Eastern Europe

President Obama today nominated of Philip Coyle, a leading critic of Bush administration missile defense schemes, to be a top White House scientific advisor.

Coyle, who was the head weapons tester at the Pentagon during the Clinton administration, was nominated to become the Associate Director for National Security and International Affairs at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. There he will lead a team tasked with giving scientific advice to Obama on a range of national security issues and will report to Director John Holdren.

Since his last tour at the Pentagon, Coyle has been a leading analyst on weapons systems for the Center for Defense Information, a component of the World Security Institute, a defense-minded think thank. From that perch, he's been actively involved in several of the national security debates involving advanced technology and a staunch watchdog on the missile defense system the Bush administration rushed to deploy throughout its tenure.

Coyle has often pointed out that the testing done by the Pentagon on ballistic missile defense components since 2001 has been either shoddy or thin. Moreover, he has repeatedly questioned the basic rationale for investing billions to deploy ballistic missile defense around the world, especially in Eastern Europe.

"In my view, Iran is not so suicidal as to attack Europe or the United States with missiles," he testified before the House Armed Services Strategic Forces subcommittee in February, "But if you believe that Iran is bound and determined to attack Europe or America, no matter what, then I think you also have to assume that Iran would do whatever it takes to overwhelm our missile defenses, including using decoys to fool the defenses, launching stealthy warheads, and launching many missiles, not just one or two."

Coyle has often argued that the Bush administration rushed to deploy missile defense systems around the world to build momentum and keep money flowing into the program. He has repeatedly said that the Missile Defense Agency has been amassing hardware that is either not aligned with the threat or can't be relied on in case of an actual emergency.

Over $120 billion has been spent on ballistic missile defense since its inception during the Reagan administration.

Coyle's views line up with Ellen Tauscher, who was then the subcommittee chairwoman but who is now Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, which oversees missile defense diplomacy.

Tauscher was part of the decision making process that led to huge changes in the Bush administration plans for missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic. The Obama plan now calls for more short and medium range systems, most of them mobile. These are changes Coyle has also supported.

Coyle must now be confirmed by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. The vetting and confirmation process could take months.

At the start of its hearing this morning, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee established a quorum, held a "business meeting," and favorably reported out these diplomatic nominations, all by voice vote. The full Senate must now confirm, but no schedule for that has been set.

1. Michael H. Posner, of New York, to be assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights, and labor

2. David C. Jacobson, of Illinois, to be ambassador to Canada

3. Alan D. Solomont, of Massachusetts, to be ambassador to Spain, and to serve concurrently and without additional compensation as ambassador to Andorra

4. Robert D. Hormats, of New York, to be under secretary of state for economic, energy, and agricultural affairs 

5. Also Robert D. Hormats (who is wearing multiple hats) to be United States Alternate Governor of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development for a term of five years; United States Alternate Governor of the Inter-American Development Bank for a term of five years; United States Alternate Governor of the African Development Bank for a term of five years; United States Alternate Governor of the African Development Fund; United States Alternate Governor of the Asian Development Bank; and United States Alternate Governor of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

6. Lee A. Feinstein, of Virginia, to be ambassador to the Republic of Poland

7. Barry B. White, of Massachusetts, to be ambassador to Norway

There were several reports today characterizing the Obama administration's overhaul of the plan to deploy missile defense in Eastern Europe as a complete "scrapping" of the system, but the administration and arms control advocates are pushing back, trying to reframe the move as an adjustment, not a complete withdrawal.

"Those who say we are scrapping missile defense in Europe are either misinformed or misrepresenting the reality of what we are doing," U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said today.

True, the long-range interceptors planned for Poland are not going to happen, but they will be replaced with shorter-range Standard Missile-3s (SM-3s), both on land and at sea, the administration detailed in a document distributed ahead of Obama's announcement.

"The plan provides for the defense of U.S. deployed forces, their families, and our Allies in Europe sooner and more comprehensively than the previous program, and involves more flexible and survivable systems," the document states.

Of course, that means the Eastern European system won't be able to defend the United States from long-range missiles fired from Iran, which was the whole idea in the first place.

But a senior administration official, speaking to The Cable on background basis before the announcement occurred, said that the missile interceptors currently in the ground at Fort Greely, Alaska, provide enough protection from that threat.

Nevertheless, senior Republican senators like John McCain (Ariz.), Jon Kyl, (Ariz.), and Jeff Sessions (Ala.) are sure to raise hell in the Senate, possibly complicating the pending passage of the defense authorization and appropriations bills.

McCain said in a statement: "I am disappointed with the administration's decision to cancel plans to develop missile defenses in Eastern Europe. This decision calls into question the security and diplomatic commitments the United States has made to Poland and the Czech Republic, and has the potential to undermine perceived American leadership in Eastern Europe."

Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, is concerned that allies Poland and the Czech Republic are being hung out to dry, as reported in The Cable last night.

Senior administration officials are in Europe today, including defense undersecretary for policy Michèle Flournoy, state undersecretary for arms control Ellen Tauscher, and assistant defense secretary for international security affairs Alexander Vershbow.

Gates said that they are talking with the Poles and Czechs about hosting other missile-defense components, such as the SM-3 missiles. He argued that the shorter-range missile should mean the Russians can't "rationally" argue that the system threatens them.

Sources close to the Russian government told The Cable that Russia was viewing the decision favorably but were concerned about the perception that the decision was all about Russia.

"Although we can expect certain conservatives in Washington to excoriate the administration for 'caving' to Russian demands on this, that was never really an issue," the source said, adding "but they tried to leverage that decision diplomatically in terms of Russian help on Iran" (which apparently they didn't get).

One open question is, will the Russians be happy with the new location of the X-band radar site the Czechs thought they were getting?

"It's probably more likely to be in the Caucasus," Gates said.

Olaf Osica, a fellow at Warsaw's Natolin European Centre, a defense think tank, said that even this will be a political setback for Poland, which was trying to build its profile in Europe and also show strength vis-à-vis Russia.

"For Poland it's not a problem when it comes to security and defense; missile defese has nothing to do with our national security," he said. "However we tried to build a link between missile defense and Russia."

A senior GOP Senate aide tells The Cable that despite the many bellicose statements by Republicans today about Obama's new missile defense scheme, lawmakers have no concrete plans to take legislative steps to try to stall the initiative.

"In the end, there's probably nothing we can do about it," the aide said.