Iran Election

As anticipated, U.S. President Barack Obama spoke on Iran during his appearance with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi this evening. And he reiterated, according to the pool report filed by McClatchy's Steve Thomma, the message Vice President Joseph Biden said Sunday: that Washington intends to try to engage Iran despite the election dispute, because it considers it in U.S. interests to do so. But he also told the Iranian people that "the world is watching" and is "inspired" by the participation:

"I have always felt that, as odious a I feel some of President Ahmadinejad's statements (are), as deep as the differences that exist between the United States and Iran on core  issues,  the use of tough hard headed diplomacy, diplomacy without illusions, is critical when it comes to pursuing a core set of national security interests....

"We will continue to pursue a tough direct dialogue between our two countries."

He also said he and the world are watching the protests of Iranians who think their votes were stolen.

"I am deeply troubled by the violence that I've been seeing on television. I think that the democratic process, free speech, the ability of people to peacefully dissent, all those are universal values and need to be respected," he said.

"When I see violence perpetrated on people who are peacefully dissenting....and whenever the American people see that, I think they are rightfully troubled.

To those people, he added, "I would say that the world is watching and inspired by the participation."

With no independent U.S. observers of the election, the president added, according to Thomma, that "he could not comment on allegations of vote fraud. He noted that the Iranian government promised an investigation, and said he hoped it would be done fairly and without any further violence."

Reacting to a report in Israeli daily Haaretz that said State Department Iran policy architect Dennis Ross might be being "ousted" and sent to work at the White House, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly told The Cable Monday that Ross "is hard at work here at State." He did not respond to a further query of whether Ross would be moving to the NSC in the near-future.

Officials speaking on condition of anonymity seemed to leave room for the possibility of a future personnel announcement concerning Ross -- conceivably a move to the NSC. But they knocked down any hint that such a move indicated any White House or administration displeasure with Ross or his policy ideas.

[UPDATE: Time magazine reports that Ross will be promoted to a senior advisor position at the NSC with an expanded portfolio. "The new White House position puts him closer to the center of foreign policy power, placing him in the top ranks of Obama's in-house aides," the magazine reports.]

Another official said he'd had an email from Ross just last night, which would seem to indicate that Ross's work helping craft U.S. government Iran policy continues apace. "I think he's going to stay right where he is and with the same responsibilities."

A couple U.S. officials who said they had no specific knowledge of the matter said they wondered if there might be something to the report.

But there were no signs Ross was being taken off the Iran portfolio; on the contrary, Ross would seem to have been strengthened inside the interagency process by the recent tumult in Iran, which some veteran Iran analysts describe as an attempted coup by hard-liners to preemptively declare incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner of Friday's contested presidential elections.

Any move from the State Department to the White House would likely be a promotion, not a demotion.

Ross, along with the NSC senior director for Iran and the Persian Gulf Puneet Talwar, is a chief architect coordinating the crafting of U.S. Iran policy within the interagency process.

As with the other envoys, Ross's team at State operates with a good deal of independence from the rest of the State Department bureaucracy, and much of his work is coordinated closely through the White House inter-agency process.

What might be plausible is if Ross is getting his title and chain of command shifted so that he is officially reporting not just to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton but to the president as well, as two other special envoys, George Mitchell and Richard Holbrooke, do.

Ross is also said to be close with Clinton, and frequently is seen consulting with her, and she is said to trust him on many matters. He is also said to be on good terms with people at the NSC and White House, including deputy national security advisor Thomas Donilon.

UPDATE: From State/Ian Kelly press briefing Monday, a hint of equivocation:

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the Guardian Council to probe claims of election fraud Monday, as tens of thousands of supporters of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi took to the streets of Tehran in defiance of a ban on their demonstration.

The order by Khamenei Monday -- which would delay certification of Iran's elections for another 10 days -- marked another dramatic twist in a tumultuous weekend since Iran's contested Friday elections that have seen some of the largest street protests in Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

"State television quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei directing a high-level clerical panel, the Guardian Council, to look into charges by pro-reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has said he is the rightful winner of Friday's presidential election," the AP reports.

A Tehran-based reporter for the Financial Times told NPR's Washington affiliate Monday that the Khamenei order may be an effort to calm down unrest and ease tension, not a sign he plans to endorse reversing the election results.

The AP said tens of thousands of supporters of Mousavi are streaming into the streets of Tehran. "The crowd - many wearing the trademark green color of Mousavi's campaign - was headed toward the capital's huge Freedom Square in the largest display of opposition unity since Friday's elections ended with Mousavi claiming widespread fraud."

"Obviously we continue to have concern about what we've seen," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters Monday, from aboard Air Force One en route to Chicago. "Obviously the Iranians are looking into this, as well.  We continue to be heartened by the enthusiasm of young people in Iran. 

"But I think what's important is the concerns that we have about their nuclear weapons program, and the concern we have about their support for terror isn't any different than it was on Friday," Gibbs added. 

Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, told NPR's Washington affiliate Monday he thinks the momentum is starting to shift in favor of those contesting the elections results. The ultimate outcome is uncertain at this point, Parsi said.

Middle East expert and journalist Robin Wright told NPR she thought it was a critical juncture, but that several key authority figures seemed unlikely at this point to reverse their endorsement of the official elections results.

"I am absolutely stunned by the amount of protesting we are hearing about," a Washington-based Iranian analyst said, on condition of anonymity because he does not have permission to speak publicly by his employer. "This is much bigger than the regime must have expected. The increasing violence speaks to that fact as well. However, the most important factor will be how long the protesters manage to go on. The recount could take long (on purpose) to get the steam out of the movement. In addition with arresting journalists and reformers, the movement might calm down."

UPDATE: President Barack Obama is expected to talk about Iran in an appearance with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi at 5pm Monday.

Before the pro-Mousavi demonstrations in Tehran today, Iranian state television showed people demonstrating using pictures from older demonstrations, said Parsi. They said Mousavi will speak. That means some people in the IRIB (Iranian state TV) encouraged the demonstration. And people came, he said, even though they didn't have any way of organizing in advance or mobilizing and that there was fear that police would shoot on the crowd. "They showed up anyway," in the tens of thousands.

After the rally, reports said, there was shooting and a pro-government militia reportedly killed a protestor.

"They were doing well by allowing 400,000 Moussavi supporters march and the police did not get involved or harass them," Los Angeles based Iranian pro democracy activist Pooya Dayanim said. "But with the shootings tonight, I don't think Moussavi and [former president Mohammad] Khatami can ask the people to remain calm."

BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images